Prepared for the worst?

[Originally posted at NOW]

A chemical weapons attack in Lebanon would overwhelm already-constrained medical resources.

With most major Western intelligence agencies now firmly convinced the Syrian regime did in fact attack residential suburbs of Damascus with chemical weapons on 21 August, some of Syria’s neighbors have begun taking precautionary steps to safeguard themselves in the event that such weapons of mass destruction are turned upon their own populations.

Foremost among these has been Israel, whose government began distributing gas masks and antidote syringes to the public in the days following the alleged attack. Tel Aviv has also bolstered its deployment of Iron Dome and Patriot missile defense systems in its northern regions, aiming to intercept any potential incoming fire from Syria and/or Lebanon.

At the same time, Turkey has implemented a number of measures along its southern border, including stocking food and gas masks inside designated bunkers in seven key locations, and sending a team of 100 chemical weapons experts to the area to screen for traces of chemical agents.

In Lebanon, by contrast, no comparable precautions have been taken, and the country’s healthcare infrastructure would be ill-prepared to adequately treat victims of any chemical weapons attack, according to industry leaders with whom NOW spoke.

To be sure, security analysts see the chances of chemical weapons use in Lebanon as remote. “I don’t think it would ever happen,” said Riad Kahwaji, founder and CEO of the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA). Pressed to say, for the sake of argument, where the most likely site of an attack would be if one were to happen, Kahwaji suggested areas deemed to be strongholds of Sunni Islamism, such as the border town of Arsal. “If there was any scenario, it would be in places where the [Syrian regime] claims there are Islamist groups. Right now, in Lebanon, [Arsal] is the area which the regime claims is the stronghold for the Islamists.”

“I wouldn’t go as far [as chemical weapons,] even in a worst-case scenario,” said Dr. Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. “The Americans are already going to fight [Syrian President] Assad for what happened in Syria. Now if this happens in Lebanon I think there would be no doubt that the regime in Damascus did it, and [this] could not only bring the end of the Assad regime, but maybe the end of Assad’s life. So I think it is far-fetched.”

Nor does Khashan believe extremist elements among the Syrian opposition are likely to launch chemical weapons attacks on Lebanese targets any time soon.

“Anything is possible, but I don’t know if al-Qaeda has access to chemical weapons. If they did, I think this matter would have been brought up in the past. We would have seen them used in Afghanistan, or Iraq, or Yemen.”

That such attacks are deemed unlikely is fortunate for Lebanon, which has next to no capacity to treat victims of the kind seen in Damascus last month, according to Sleiman Haroun, president of the Lebanese Syndicate of Hospitals.

“We cannot pretend that we could cope with a direct attack by chemical weapons,” Haroun told NOW. “Lebanese hospitals could not handle the kind of numbers” of injured witnessed in Damascus. For one thing, there are simple space constraints.

“We have 1,500 intensive care units in the country. These are 90% occupied in normal times. So if we needed to suddenly hospitalize hundreds of chemical weapons victims, we would have a problem of space,” Haroun told NOW.

Furthermore, there is the matter of technical readiness.

“We have the proper medications and equipment, antidotes, and such, to deal with such attacks. And we have been training hospital personnel [in treating chemical weapons victims] since 2012. We now have around 220 individuals trained in this regard.” Indeed, at least four Hezbollah fighters were reportedly treated in a Beirut hospital for chemical gas encountered in Damascus following the 21 August attack.

“But I must say this is elementary, basic training, and we haven’t conducted any drills. So unfortunately, I cannot say we are ready to treat these kinds of casualties.”

The health ministry could not be reached for comment. Ayad al-Mounzer, spokesperson for the Lebanese Red Cross, declined to comment when contacted by NOW.

Syrian refugee businessmen lament coming crackdown

[Originally posted at NOW]

This article is the first in a multi-part series focusing on a string of recent policies cracking down on Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

MASNAA, Lebanon – At the final stretch of the Lebanese portion of the Beirut-Damascus highway, between the villages of Bar Elias and Masnaa in the eastern fringes of the rural Beqaa Valley, almost every other shop has the word “Sham” (which can mean both “Damascus” and “Syria”) in its name. And, aptly enough, nearly every person here these days is Syrian, most of them refugees from the brutal war raging just a few kilometers away on the other side of the snow-capped Anti-Lebanon mountains.

Cut off from their livelihoods at home, many of them have opened small businesses – mostly restaurants, grocery stores, and cheap goods outlets – almost invariably without obtaining legal licenses. Having operated for months without disturbance from the Lebanese authorities, these small enterprises will now face closure from next week, according to a government announcement Tuesday, in a move that coincides with a wider crackdown on Syrian refugees, including stricter measures at border crossings. Speaking to AFP Thursday, Caretaker Economy Minister Nicolas Nahhas said the 377 identified refugee-owned businesses in Lebanon were creating “unfair competition,” and that Syrians in Lebanon did not have the right to work in “business and commerce.”

Though most Syrian business owners NOW met in the area on Thursday insisted they had licenses – claims of which their neighbors were quietly skeptical – they were nevertheless unhappy with the government’s decision.

“What’s the reason for this? Give me a reason!” said a cell phone accessories store owner, who preferred not to be named. His tone was not so much angry as genuinely confused: “Are we really harming the economy? Does it really hurt the Lebanese for us to be here as Syrians, selling to other Syrians, keeping to ourselves?”

Others, too, dismissed the idea that their presence was undermining the Lebanese economy.

“They say we’re stealing Lebanese jobs, but we’re doing manual labor work that the Lebanese don’t want to do anyway, and we’re only here in the first place because of the war back at home,” said a restaurant employee.

Everyone NOW spoke to agreed the financial burden was the key factor discouraging the refugees from obtaining licenses.

“It can cost $1,000 a month or more to get a license, and most of these places don’t make more than $200 a month,” said a grocer.

“Even without paying for licenses, most of our businesses only stay open for a month or two before going broke and closing down,” said a baker. “Many have already returned to Syria – better to be killed there than die of hunger here.”

Some, however, merely shrugged off the news, saying they doubted the government would carry out its pledge.

“It’s well-known that all restaurants in Bar Elias are Syrian-owned, operating without licenses,” said a restaurateur from Homs, who admitted to not having a license himself. “The previous owner of this one told me that State Security came to him once and told him to get a license, but they never came back again to check if he did.” If the government really did close him down this time, he said, he would simply move and start another business elsewhere.

Analysts NOW spoke to shared the refugees’ scorn for the notion that the coming crackdown is driven by economic concerns, saying instead the government is responding to political pressures pertaining to Lebanon’s notoriously delicate power-sharing arrangements between sectarian communities.

“I don’t buy the claim that the refugees are cutting into Lebanese business,” said Dr. Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. “The reason is political […] remember these are Sunni Muslims for the most part, and Lebanese are very sensitive to demographic numbers. Lebanon proved to be inhospitable to Palestinian refugees, mainly because they are Sunni, and here you have an even larger influx of Sunnis.” From the perspective of sectarian opponents, therefore, “this threatens to tip the demography in favor of the Sunnis.”

Nor does Khashan expect such tensions will alleviate any time soon.

“Initial expectations were that the Syrian conflict would not last long and these refugees would soon be returning to Syria. As it happened, the influx has increased steadily, and it seems that this conflict does not have an end in sight.”

Maya Gebeily contributed reporting.

A crack in the Aoun-Hezbollah alliance?

[Originally posted at NOW]

Analysts say Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria is stirring unease among its Christian allies

In an unusual and perhaps suggestive departure from his party’s typical talking points, caretaker Energy Minister and senior Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) member, Gebran Bassil, launched a bitter attack Tuesday on his staunch political ally Hezbollah, accusing them of having “stabbed us and stabbed democracy.”

The remarks, given in an interview with the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, referred specifically to Hezbollah’s backing of a decision to extend the term of Lebanon’s parliament. However, Bassil further criticized Hezbollah’s military intervention in the neighboring Syrian conflict, saying such a move brought “problems to Lebanon that are not in [Lebanon’s] interests.” He also said the move jeopardized the country’s important economic relations with Gulf Arab states.

Indeed, these latter comments may be the more significant ones. For while Bassil stressed that any disagreements between the FPM and Hezbollah “would not affect the strategic alliance between the two parties,” analysts with whom NOW spoke said there was reason to believe Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria has stirred considerable anxiety among the FPM’s Christian base.

“Lebanese Maronites are divided, but despite their differences they have a common vision for Lebanon,” said Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. “They see Lebanon as a citadel of freedom and they enjoy their Lebanese way of life. They are aware that Hezbollah’s entry into Syria will backfire, and actually has begun to backfire already.”

“What can Hezbollah’s Maronite allies do when wave after wave of Sunni jihadists converge on Lebanon from Syria? They see the threat. [Hezbollah leader] Hassan Nasrallah and the rest of Hezbollah don’t see it, because they are driven by millenarian aspirations and they cannot say no to the quasi-infallible Supreme Leader of Iran. So while Hezbollah feels it is on the side of the winner, [FPM leader Michel] Aoun and Bassil are beginning to feel that their alliance with Hezbollah may bring about a disaster for Lebanon.”

While not necessarily an accurate indicator of the party mood, posts on the FPM-affiliated ‘Orange Room’ web forum do provide some evidence of this unease. A poll last week, titled, “Was it right of Hezbollah to enter the Syrian war?” yielded a divided response, with 53 percent saying yes and a slightly smaller 47 percent no. Several commenters echoed the points made by Khashan, with one, for example, writing, “By entering the Syrian war, it is my opinion that [Hezbollah] took a bad decision and might have opened the Pandora[‘s] box.” Another said, “We should let the Syrians fix their mess on their own… [Hezbollah’s] involvement will ***** [sic] Lebanon in the end.”

Bassil’s comments about deteriorating ties with Gulf states may also have touched on many FPM members’ concerns. Earlier this month, Saudi media reported that Gulf citizens had been advised by their governments not to travel to “unsafe” Lebanon – a development to which Bassil alluded in the interview, saying, “We say to the [Gulf Arabs] come to Lebanon this summer, because we cannot imagine a summer without their presence among us.”

“That’s another factor, obviously,” said Charles Chartouni, a professor of politics at the Université Saint-Joseph and the Lebanese University. “It’s a question of major financial interests. [Aoun’s] people are not ready to compromise their jobs, their financial interests, for the sake of a political agenda. This is something that is even causing disagreement among the Shiites,” he told NOW.

Khashan agrees, adding that the considerable Lebanese diaspora in the Gulf – and the many FPM voters among them – may be growing increasingly concerned for their financial security. “There are half a million Lebanese in the Gulf, and the percentage of Christians among them is quite high. And Lebanese Christians have excellent positions over there, and Aoun is putting them in the way of harm.”

Ultimately, no analyst NOW spoke to believed the FPM-Hezbollah alliance is under serious threat for the moment. But, in Khashan’s view, it will not last forever.

“I’m not saying the alliance between Hezbollah and the FPM is coming to an end now. But it is an awkward one… between two groups that felt marginalized in Lebanese politics at the time [in 2006]. Two groups coming together for negative reasons are not expected to develop a healthy alliance. It’s an alliance based on contradictions. Needless to say, such an alliance is bound to come to an end at one time or another.”