Aoun rumors costing Future support on ground

[Originally posted at NOW]

Speculation that the Future Movement might back Hezbollah ally Michel Aoun for president is angering supporters across Lebanon.

TARIQ AL-JADIDEH, Lebanon – On the restless streets of this crowded south Beirut neighborhood, where posters of former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri vie with Sunni Islamist graffiti for dominance on the walls, the most common reaction NOW got from residents Tuesday to the rumors of Hariri’s possible support for arch-rival Michel Aoun’s presidential candidacy was one of simple disbelief.

“It just can’t happen,” said an incredulous shop-owner. “For ten years, their policies have been opposed, how can they support each other now?”

Others went further, clearly angered by the idea. “[Hariri] will be a traitor if he does it,” said a woman pedestrian in a colorful hijab. Asked which candidate she would rather see the Future Movement leader support, her young friend instantly replied, “[Lebanese Forces head Samir] Geagea.”

Geagea is still Future’s official nominee, as the bloc reiterated in a statement Tuesday. But speculation remains that Hariri might make a surprise switch to backing the Hezbollah-allied Aoun, whose son-in-law, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, lunched with Hariri in Paris Tuesday in a meeting he described as “positive.” One report Wednesday claimed Hariri had in fact already accepted Aoun’s candidacy, on the condition that the Free Patriotic Movement leader agreed to align himself politically with his current foes in the March 14 coalition.

Even a concession on that historic scale, however, would be unlikely to appease most Tariq al-Jadideh residents, many of whom recall the war days when they were on the receiving end of Aoun’s – and Geagea’s – military attacks.

“Neither Geagea nor Aoun [for president],” was a response NOW heard several times. “It has to be someone independent, with no blood on his hands,” said an elderly man sitting outside a sandwich shop. Asked who might meet those criteria, he thought for some time before offering Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh.

Others said they simply didn’t care who became president. “We’re not going to benefit from any of them,” said a telephone accessories shop owner. Despite his apparent apathy, however, he was convinced of one thing: “No one here will accept Hariri backing Aoun.”

Such hostility to the idea is even sharper in pro-Future areas that have felt a more direct impact from the neighboring Syrian war, in which Aoun’s ally Hezbollah is a key participant. In the view of Ahmad Fleeti, deputy mayor of the border town of Arsal, Hariri would be “covering up [for] Hezbollah” if he backed the FPM leader.

“If Hariri supported Aoun, he would be giving away [March 14’s] principles, especially [that of defending Lebanon’s] sovereignty,” Fleeti told NOW. “Whenever one of March 14’s members gives away its principles, they will not get the support of their followers.”

Like the woman in Tariq al-Jadideh, Fleeti said “the only” acceptable candidate was Geagea, on account of his refusal to join the current cabinet due to Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria.

Indeed, Geagea also received endorsement from another perhaps unlikely source in the southern city of Sidon. A sympathizer of the fugitive Islamist cleric and militant Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir, who declined to give his name, told NOW by telephone that the LF leader was the only “non-hypocrite” among all Lebanese politicians. Hariri, by contrast, would be “betraying the Cedar Revolution and the blood of the martyrs” by backing Aoun’s candidacy.

Similarly, in Tripoli, where another Aoun ally – the Syrian regime – has been implicated in the bombing of mosques, many also staunchly oppose any Hariri-Aoun reconciliation. Sheikh Bilal Baroudi, an imam who narrowly escaped death when his Al-Salam mosque was car-bombed in August 2013, told NOW, “We would consider that Hariri gave away all his previous [stances] and principles, and ours as well,” if he backed Aoun.

“Future is losing a lot of supporters because of [the Aoun rumors],” said Tripoli-based civil society activist Shadi Nashabi. At the same time, Nashabi told NOW, the presidential question ranks relatively low on many residents’ list of priorities, given the more immediate concerns of ongoing armed violence and instability in the northern city.

In the face of such widespread objections, Hariri would clearly find it tough to sell Aoun’s candidacy to his supporters, and vice versa, according to Hussam Itani, an analyst at the al-Hayat newspaper.

“It is not only a problem for Hariri’s supporters, but also for Aoun’s, especially after all the campaigns he led against the Future Movement and Hariri,” Itani told NOW.

Nonetheless, Itani believes that if the decision were made, both groups of partisans would ultimately have little choice but to fall in line.

“In Lebanon, politicians take decisions regardless of the opinions of their supporters, [and those] supporters end up accepting the decisions,” he told NOW.

Indeed, as an elderly woman in Tariq al-Jadideh told NOW with an amused grin: “We Lebanese are always ready for surprises.”

Myra Abdallah contributed reporting.

Will the Sassine bomb sway the Christian vote?

[Originally posted at NOW Lebanon]

When a car bomb laden with over 60 kilograms of TNT gutted the sleepy residential impasse of Ibrahim al-Munzer St. on October 19, it did not merely kill an intelligence chief, his driver and a luckless bystander. Situated scarcely a hundred meters from the bustling Sassine Square—where dozens of glass panes were instantaneously shattered—the blast also drove chaos and terror into the symbolic heart of Beirut’s Christian community.

Seated on the crown of the Ashrafieh hill and orbited by offices, cafés, schools, churches and a mall, Sassine Square is the social and commercial hub of the district. In terms of political orientation, while a large monument to slain President-elect Bashir Gemayel of the Lebanese Forces (now the leading March 14 Christian party) stands in the Square’s center, it is also often adorned with flags of the rival March 8-aligned Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). Indeed, in the most recent parliamentary elections of 2009, March 14 pipped March 8 to victory in Ashrafieh by fewer than 3,000 votes out of a total of 91,000 registered voters.

Such close competition raises the question of what, if any, will be the effects of the bomb on Christian voters in next year’s elections. Assuming the electoral law used closely resembles the 2009 law, as analysts expect it will, then Ashrafieh (technically called “Beirut I”) will once again be a key “swing” district, one of a handful upon which the entire outcome hinges. That the other “swing” districts—chiefly Metn, Zahle and Koura—are also predominantly Christian underscores the paramount importance of Christian voting in determining the overall winner.

For some analysts, the clear loser in this regard following the bomb is March 8. “It is definitely going to realign voting practices among the Christian community, especially concerning [FPM leader Michel] Aoun,” said Charles Chartouni, professor of politics at Université Saint Joseph and the Lebanese University. “I’m not saying voters will necessarily go toward March 14 candidates, but Aoun will definitely lose some voters,” he told NOW Lebanon.

This, Chartouni believes, is due to a perception among Christians that the blast was orchestrated by Aoun’s major allies. “I’ve spoken to a lot of people in Ashrafieh lately, and they are in no doubt that a kind of joint venture between Hezbollah and Syria is behind the assassination. What has hurt people most is that the criminals responsible didn’t care about the fact that these people are living in dense areas and thus the damage can be devastating. If intelligence services want to fight among each other, in a country like ours and in a situation like ours, it’s somewhat understandable, but to forget about civilians and the welfare of people in the neighborhood is considered insulting and disrespectful.”

Key March 14 Christians such as LF leader Samir Geagea and Kataeb chief Amin Gemayel have indeed explicitly accused Hezbollah and Syria of carrying out the bombing. Aoun, on the other hand, has declined to make any accusations, saying,“I will wait for the result of the investigation.”

However, a perusal of the Orange Room, an FPM-affiliated online forum, suggests Aoun’s supporters believe March 14’s reaction to the bomb will in fact work in March 8’s favor. “[March 14] shot themselves in the foot,” said one user in reference to the clashes between March 14 partisans and security forces following the October 21 funeral of the bomb’s target, Internal Security Forces Information Branch head Wissam al-Hassan. “[March 14] Christians are [going to] lose a lot of support,” agreed another. “Islamic flags in [Ashrafieh and Free Syrian Army] flags over [Martyrs Square] is [sic] a big no-no.”

In a similar vein, FPM-aligned Metn MP Ghassan Moukheiber compared the funeral scrap and the subsequent violence in Tripoli and Tariq al-Jdeideh to Hezbollah’s “black shirts” demonstration in 2011. “Storming the Serail and the presence of armed men the day after added ‘black shirts’ of a certain political party confronting ‘black shirts’ of another party. Therefore, there is an equality in the rhetoric of ‘black shirts’,” he told NOW.

However, Antoine Haddad, leader of the March 14-aligned Tajaddod Movement, rejects this equivalence. “The attack on the Serail was a spontaneous one. I’m not reducing its importance here, but it’s not on par with the assassination itself, and it will not have an effect on elections, whereas the link between the assassination and the [Michel] Samaha case will,” he told NOW, referring to the senior Damascus ally who pleaded guilty in August to plotting terror attacks in Lebanon in coordination with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Many Lebanese have speculated that Hassan’s assassination was revenge by Syria for the intelligence chief ordering Samaha’s arrest.

As regards the Islamic flags mentioned on the Orange Room, Chartouni isn’t convinced these will cost March 14. “There is no doubt that Christians are very apprehensive about Islamic militancy. But at the same time this won’t outweigh the fact that assassinations have been committed for seven years now, mostly in Christian areas, in which the victims were always on one side of the divide [i.e. March 14]. And the involvement of Michel Samaha has further confirmed the connection with a Syria-Hezbollah joint venture.”

Of course, this may all prove academic, given that no electoral law has yet been approved for 2013. With tensions already high and the war in neighboring Syria showing little sign of abating, much can change in the next few months. As Haddad put it, “there is a long time yet before the elections.”

Agnes Helou and Amani Hamad contributed reporting.

March 14 Youth stages a comeback

[Originally posted at NOW Lebanon]

There were only a few dozen people at the Universite Saint Joseph car park at 6 p.m. on Wednesday, and for 15 minutes it looked as though the planned March 14 Youth rally was going to be a disaster. But then they began arriving—by the car, the jeep and the busload. One after another, hundreds of students from the Lebanese Forces (LF), the Future Movement, the Kataeb, al-Jamaa al-Islamiyah and the National Liberal Party (NLP) began beeping horns, waving flags and chanting. While the ostensible purpose of the rally was to call for the resignation of Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour and the expulsion of Syrian Ambassador Ali Abdel-Karim Ali, it was also a flexing of muscles for the March 14 parties themselves.

“God, [Lebanese] Forces, Doctor [Samir Geagea] and nothing else!” went the LF students, prompting al-Jamaa al-Islamiyah to retort, “There is no God but Allah!” Nearby, a circle of Future students chanted, “Saad [Hariri], Saad” and “God protect you, Free Syria Army!” Posters bore such slogans as “How long will our prisoners be in Syrian jails?” and “Respect Us or Leave.”

After marching down Ashrafieh’s Charles Malik Street, the 1,000-plus crowd gathered outside the Foreign Ministry and began by singing the national anthem. “We’ve had enough of always being ruled by Syria,” a Kataeb student, Karim, told NOW Lebanon. “Not only the ambassador, but the entire criminal Syrian regime has to go,” said Ahmad of the Future Movement. Various student leaders gave speeches, while MPs including Future’s Ahmad Fatfat, the Kataeb’s Nadim Gemayel and NLP’s Dory Chamoun shook hands and gave interviews.

The rally comes at what may be an auspicious time for the opposition bloc, as its incumbent rivals are increasingly squeezed by events in neighboring Syria. Since the surprise arrest of former minister and tight Damascus ally Michel Samaha on August 9, and the subsequent official charging of him along with Syrian National Security head General Ali Mamluk with plotting “terror attacks,” key pillars of the government—from President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Najib Miqati down—appear to be distancing themselves somewhat from the Assad regime. Even the defiantly pro-Assad Hezbollah leadership has reportedly been having private doubts about the relationship.

These unprecedented developments have left some analysts questioning whether March 14 is effectively rising to the occasion. “March 14’s response to the situation in Syria has been quite uneven and heterogeneous, which is a reflection of the state of the political alliance,” said Elias Muhanna, assistant professor at Brown University and author of the Qifa Nabki blog. “Some members have been looking for direct ways to weaken March 8, while others are taking a more cautious approach. Certainly there is a lot of apprehension about the fallout of a regime change in Syria. We're certainly not witnessing the same degree of enthusiasm to spearhead an international pressure campaign against the Assad government from Beirut, as we saw in 2005-07,” he told NOW by email.

Al-Hayat columnist Hazem Saghieh, too, feels that March 14’s response to events has been lacking. “Regarding the Samaha case, I think March 14 should insist on extending the affair, on using it as an entrance to investigating everything which has happened in Lebanon lately,” he told NOW. “Also, they should be more insistent regarding the treatment of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon. This is a political, moral and human cause which should not be dealt with half-heartedly.”

However, Muhanna also argued that their comparative inaction may pay dividends later. “In a sense […] this more cautious approach has worked to the advantage of Syria’s enemies in Lebanon. It almost seems as if the Future Movement has taken a page from Hezbollah’s playbook by sitting in the opposition, staying out of the limelight, and allowing the geopolitics to do the talking.”

Saghieh, too, cautions against an overreaction on March 14’s part. “I don’t think it’s wise to call for the resignation of the government now. Without wanting to describe the government as efficient, we need something; we need the bare minimum to keep peace. Peace is very fragile in Lebanon, and the removal of this government would not help anyone.”

If March 14 is to truly capitalize on the potential rewards of a weakened or even vanquished Damascus, Saghieh adds, it may need to reinvent itself fundamentally. The bloc is held back by “their lack of dynamism, and the way they conceive politics as something related to elections only,” he said. “Theoretically, they can gain a lot, but practically the question is are they going to invest, do they know how to deal with the changes?”

Lebanese Christian rivals finally unite - on need to oppose Muslims

[Originally posted at NOW Lebanon]

When it comes to trivial issues – Hizbullah’s arsenal; the Special Tribunal; the thousands killed in Syria; etc. – Lebanon’s Christian politicians never quite seem able to agree how to tackle them. What a relief it is, then, to see that they can set aside their differences and unite on the question that really matters: the religious beliefs of state electricity employees.

As yesterday’s parliamentary session came dangerously close to resolving one of the country’s current crises by approving the full-time employment of Électricité du Liban contract workers, the ever-scrupulous Energy Minister Gebran Bassil noticed that some 80% of said workers were not in fact adherents to the Christian faith. This important finding quickly rallied lawmakers from the Kata’eb and Lebanese Forces parties to his side, bringing the arch-rivals together for the first time in what must be years. They subsequently agreed to boycott today’s session, swiftly resulting in its cancellation, a move described as “imperative” by Kata’eb sources and “the least we can do” by a Change and Reform source.

Some will no doubt argue the move is entirely in accordance with the country’s (largely unwritten) constitution. I’m certainly not qualified to disagree. But if correct, it’s worth taking a step back and marveling anew at the profound destructiveness of the entire sectarian edifice. A problem that exacerbates not only the country’s energy crisis, but its physical insecurity (EDL employees, if you haven’t noticed, have been among the more agitated tyre-burners in recent weeks) is moments away from being fixed, before being felled once again because some of the people involved subscribe to the ‘wrong’ religion. As we say in the UK: Christ Almighty!

Geagea assassination attempt proves existence of God, claims new party poster

For those of you who imagine that the crude manipulation of religious credulity for political gain is somehow an exclusively Muslim phenomenon, consider the new billboard I noticed this morning recently erected by the Lebanese Forces, the militia-turned-party that has its roots in Lebanon’s sectarian Christian far-right:

The text at the top has been variously translated to me as “If God is with you, then you’re safe”; “If God is with you, who is stronger than you?”; and “If God is with you, who dares to be against you?” The man pictured is the LF’s leader, 'Dr' Samir Geagea, extending his hand in a gesture probably not accidentally reminiscent of Michelangelo’s ‘The Creation of Adam’.

The line is an obvious reference to the recent attempt on Geagea's life, in which he narrowly evaded two sniper rounds fired at his Maarab residence. Evidently, for the LF, his survival cannot be put down to mere chance: nothing less than a genuine miracle occurred on April 4th, 2012.

I’m struck anew how infinitely fascinating are the methods of the Almighty. His omnipotence notwithstanding, He apparently couldn’t simply have had the assassins undergo, say, a last-minute change of heart. Nor was He interested in any of the arguably more exciting means available for thwarting their plan - lightning strike; spontaneous combustion; sudden encirclement by man-eating dinosaurs; etc. And, for all His moral pontificating, He curiously sees no reason to have the culprits caught and punished for trying to eliminate His earthly comrade. No, instead, He opts as always for a shabby half-measure; a mediocre cop-out that bears the stamp, in every detail, not of a divine intelligence but a common mammal. 

But why let all that ruin an opportunity to assert that God is not only on the side of your sect, but in fact your political party, while comparing the head of that party to the biblical father of mankind himself in the process?