Showing posts with label Walid Jumblatt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Walid Jumblatt. Show all posts

Friday, April 12, 2013

Salam seeks small "elections" cabinet

[Originally posted at NOW]

Having concluded two days of high-level consultations with each of Lebanon’s major political parties Wednesday evening, prime minister-designate Tammam Salam now faces the crucial task of appointing the members of his cabinet.

As was already apparent before Salam was formally designated PM Saturday, this process is fraught with difficulty owing to the vastly divergent demands of the country’s opposing March 14 and March 8 coalitions, who continue to disagree even on the basic nature of the cabinet-to-be. Nevertheless, Salam has been forthright about his own vision for the government – which is noticeably, and somewhat controversially, closer to March 14’s than March 8’s – and appears determined to realize it, even threatening to resign if any parties prevent him from doing so.

In brief, March 14 has called for a neutral, non-partisan cabinet, while March 8 demands a partisan “national unity” cabinet representing all parties in proportion to their share of parliament. March 8’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) is also specifically seeking to retain control over the energy and telecom ministries; a prospect rejected by March 14’s Future Movement, which advocates a reshuffling of all portfolios.

Salam’s own preferences are markedly closer to March 14’s than March 8’s, whose “national unity” proposal he dismissed on the grounds that such cabinets have failed in the past. Like March 14, Salam advocates a strictly non-partisan and “non-provocative” cabinet whose “central task”would be to oversee the parliamentary elections scheduled for June this year. Accordingly, he also reportedly foresees a smaller cabinet – that is, one with fewer than thirty ministers.

“I’m 100% sure it’s going to be an elections cabinet,” said Democratic Renewal (Tajaddod) Movement secretary-general Antoine Haddad. “And I’m also 100% sure that ministers will not be candidates for the elections,” he told NOW.

As such, Haddad added the cabinet would be as small as is practicable. “My understanding is that it will be of 24 members.”

This was corroborated by a cabinet insider speaking to NOW on condition of anonymity, who added that “Salam expects the cabinet will only last about 6 months.”

Even so, a fierce battle is still expected over the appointments, especially to financially lucrative ministries. As NOW reported Thursday, the energy ministry in particular represents a significant financial opportunity given its control over untapped oil and gas reserves, and it is perhaps no coincidence that the ministry has already become a principal bone of contention between March 14 and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt on the one hand, and the FPM on the other.

“My sense is that the energy and telecom ministries are the most strategically important,” Haddad told NOW.

The finance ministry has also been singled out, with Future laying claim to it, prompting accusations from the FPM of corrupt intentions.

NOW’s cabinet insider source said such wrangling over portfolios is ultimately driven by financial motives, “especially in an election season, when ministry funds can be diverted for patronage and campaigning purposes.”

Haddad agreed, telling NOW that while it’s also a question of “prerogatives and authority…. the practice under the last government shows that it’s not so innocent. It’s also about financial interest, and using these resources to indirectly finance electoral campaigns, because you can provide services through these things. And this is one more reason why these ministries should be in the hands of those not running for elections.”

Nor is this the only way in which electoral considerations are likely to shape the cabinet – indeed, they appear to permeate the debate at almost all levels, with Salam himself saying the only “obstacles” in his way are “related to the elections themselves.” One hypothesis making the rounds suggests March 8 may have granted concessions to March 14 on the cabinet’s make-up in order to secure concessions from them in turn regarding the longstanding dispute over electoral law – an assessment that Haddad described as “fair.”

If so, the implication is that a cabinet will not be formed until an electoral law is agreed on. How long this will take remains unclear, though Haddad does not expect too lengthy a wait.

“Salam has alluded in several different ways that he doesn’t want to lose momentum on this. I think he won’t take long.”

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Tammam Salam: between Future and Miqati

[Originally posted at NOW]

Having reportedly secured the nominations of Future Movement leader Saad Hariri and, crucially, Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) head Walid Jumblatt, Beirut MP Tammam Salam appears to have sufficient backing to become the next prime minister of Lebanon when President Suleiman polls parliamentarians on the matter this weekend. NOW profiles Salam’s historical, political, and personal record.

Born in 1945, the son of six-time Prime Minister Saeb Salam, Tammam hails from a family whose wealth and prestige in the Sunni community date back to Ottoman times. An Arab nationalist who in the 1958 war allied with then-PSP leader Kamal Jumblatt against the pro-Western policies of President Camille Chamoun, Saeb Salam was resentful of his displacement as de facto Sunni chieftain by Rafiq Hariri in the 1990s. Though a reconciliation of sorts later occurred, when Tammam was first elected MP in 1996 his relations with Hariri remained lukewarm, and indeed he ran against him in Beirut in 2000, the same year his father Saeb died.

It was not until Hariri’s 2005 assassination that Salam (who had opposed the emerging campaign against the Syrian occupation) grew closer to the Future Movement, and though he never joined the party, he began thereafter to run on Hariri’s electoral lists; he eventually was appointed minister of culture in Fouad Siniora’s cabinet following the 2008 Doha Agreement. Following that cabinet’s dissolution in 2009, Salam became MP for the Beirut III district, running as an independent on March 14’s list.

Analysts thus summarized him to NOW as a March 14 dove – “between Future and [Caretaker PM Najib] Miqati” – a label further borne out in his somewhat conciliatory attitude toward March 8 magnate Hezbollah. In a leaked US embassy cable from late 2006, then-US ambassador Jeffrey Feltman recalls a meeting with Salam in which he “both defended and criticized” the Party of God, reproaching the US for labeling them “terrorists” and praising their alliance with Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement. Another cable quotes him implying that the party’s arms are legitimate as long as Israel occupies Shebaa Farms.

At the same time, since 2005 he has firmly (if quietly) opposed the Syrian regime, whom he accuses in the same cable of waging a “vendetta” against Lebanon and of posing the greatest risk to the country in general. “He never joined the bandwagon of insulting [Syrian President] Assad,” said one analyst who preferred to remain anonymous. “But he doesn’t hide his March 14 credentials.” More recently, Salam condemned Miqati’s cabinet for politicizing the Syrian refugee issue and failing to “fulfill its humanitarian mission.”

As a person, too, Salam is said to be of moderate temperament – a trait that may prove useful if and when the complex business of forming a cabinet gets underway. “Anyone who knows Tammam either as a public figure or in private knows that he’s a quiet person who approaches problems in a positive manner with a firm will to get a solution rather than complicating the issue,” said Antoine Haddad, secretary-general of the Democratic Renewal (Tajaddod) Movement, an independent party that has previously run on March 14 tickets. “He’s not confrontational, but he also does not surrender on basic principles. So if he is accepted by March 8, he could be a good prime minister for the coming period.”

However, another analyst told NOW he “doubts Hezbollah would endorse” Salam. Were that the case, Salam would secure the nomination only by a slim majority, and face serious difficulties appointing Shiite cabinet ministers. “I don’t see him as someone who is ready to appoint anti-Hezbollah Shiite ministers, it’s not part of his character; he has a moderate, dialogue-prone character.”

Haddad agrees, telling NOW that Salam may try to tailor his cabinet in such a way as to bring Hezbollah on board. “My guess is that he will try to form a government acceptable by more than the majority that has nominated him [i.e. Future and Jumblatt]. I think this is the purpose behind nominating someone like Tammam and not, for example, Saad Hariri. It’s a clever approach to try to rebalance the government without excluding the other parties.”

By the same token, however, should Hezbollah reject him out of hand, his viability as a prime minister would likely prove short-lived.

Jumblatt's jockeying

[Originally posted at NOW]

As the April 5 deadline approaches for President Suleiman’s meeting with parliamentarians to decide the next prime minister, few politicians’ moves are being scrutinized as closely as those of Walid Jumblatt, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and de facto chieftain of the Druze community. Just as Jumblatt’s MPs determine which of the two March 14 and March 8 minorities becomes the majority in parliament, so too will their votes prove decisive on Friday, when a simple poll will grant the premiership to whichever candidate receives the most nominations.

Thus far, neither of the major coalitions has announced a candidate, and in the meantime they are placing fundamentally irreconcilable conditions on the nature of the cabinet overall. March 8 powerhouse Hezbollah has called for a “political” (i.e. partisan) cabinet that affirms the party’s right to bear arms – a demand roundly rejected by March 14, which calls instead for a “neutral” (i.e. non-partisan) cabinet that upholds the Baabda Declaration to “dissociate” Lebanon from Syria; an implicit jab at Hezbollah’s use of its arsenal against the rebels next door.

Nor has Jumblatt named a candidate, though in an intriguing move following a trip by a deputy to Riyadh, he reportedly cut a deal with March 14’s Future Movement leader Saad Hariri to agree to whomever he nominates. Given that Future is expected to coordinate its nomination with March 14 overall, this ostensibly suggests victory for March 14. However, informed PSP sources who spoke to NOW on condition of anonymity interpreted the deal somewhat differently.

“What actually happened was Hariri mentioned four or five names he would support, and Jumblatt will now take those to the other side [i.e. March 8] to see which one is acceptable to them,” said one source. “The candidate which has the best chance at the moment is Tammam Salam,” a former minister of culture under the cabinet of Fuad Siniora.

Conversely, another source told NOW Jumblatt’s offer to Hariri was designed to coerce him into nominating Najib Miqati, the recently resigned PM who, according to some reports, is March 8’s preferred candidate.

“The only person not on board to name Miqati is Hariri,” the source told NOW. “So Jumblatt is trying to pressure Hariri into accepting his nomination.”

“But this puts Hariri in a tough position, because he was ousted from government using Miqati last time,” the source added. “So he’s going to play hard-to-get in order to appeal to the so-called Sunni ‘street’.”

A PSP minister’s spokesperson told NOW that senior party officials were refraining from talking to the press until after Jumblatt’s interview Thursday evening on LBCI’s Kalam Ennas.

Jumblatt has, however, been quite explicit about his preferences for the overall nature of the next cabinet. In a wide-ranging interview Friday, he called for a “national unity” cabinet that would include ministers from all parties across the political spectrum.

He also specifically opposed the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) retaining control of the energy and telecom ministries, referring to the March 8 heavyweight as a “destructive political force”. “[The] FPM will not be handed over the energy and [telecom] ministries […] It’s impossible and will not happen again,” he later told as-Safir. Relations between Jumblatt and FPM leader Michel Aoun have soured after disagreements over electoral law and the extension of security officials’ tenures, reaching new lows over the weekend with mutual accusations of Zionist sympathies.

Other reports suggest Jumblatt also opposes Caretaker Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour taking up any position in the next cabinet.

NOW’S PSP sources ascribed various motives to Jumblatt’s stance on the FPM ministers. “Jumblatt always likes to empower his traditional ally, which is [Parliament Speaker] Nabih Berri. These are lucrative ministries, which neither Jumblatt nor Berri want to go to Aoun,” said one.

“Aoun is too politically contentious,” said another. “Berri, Jumblatt and of course all March 14 parties are against Aoun. So you can’t give these important ministries to Aoun and then say this cabinet is ‘non-political’.”

Dr. Imad Salamey, professor of political science at Lebanese American University, added that with potentially substantial natural gas extraction in the near future, the energy ministry in particular will take on singular importance.

“Big companies are bidding for these gas reserves, this is no joke,” he told NOW. “There’s going to be a lot of money there. So whoever controls the ministry of energy is going to be invested with a lot of political and financial gain. This ministry is going to become very powerful, and obviously Jumblatt is not in favor of Aoun having that power.”

As for Jumblatt’s rejection of Mansour, “even Berri doesn’t want this guy again,” said the PSP source. “He is the puppy of [Syrian ambassador] Ali Abdul Karim Ali.”

Jumblatt’s most important precondition, however, may be one he hasn’t explicitly stated, believes the other PSP source.

“The key ‘red line’ for Jumblatt is what the next electoral law will look like,” he told NOW. “If this law doesn’t give him enough parliamentary seats, he will not go ahead.” Ultimately, continued the source, Jumblatt’s ideal law – “what would really seal the deal” – is the 1960 law, subject to minor amendments.

If Jumblatt can indeed secure a commitment to that law – shunned by March 8 and March 14 parties alike – it will be a testament to the power his “kingmaker” status grants him. In the meantime, March 14 will apparently announce their candidate Thursday evening. Should that name differ from March 8’s nominee, it will fall – once more – on Jumblatt to decide the outcome

Yara Chehayed contributed to this report.

Thursday, March 28, 2013

The battle for Rifi's successor

[Originally posted at NOW]

That former Prime Minister Najib Miqati brought down his own cabinet on Friday over a failure to agree on the leadership of Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces (ISF) is testament to the extraordinary political significance of the position. As NOW reported last week, MPs from the March 14 coalition as well as the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) had urged cabinet to extend the term of current director-general Major General Ashraf Rifi, who is seen as a political ally of theirs. When the cabinet majority loyal to March 14’s rivals Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement opposed the idea in a session last Friday, Miqati announced his resignation.

March 14 is still attempting to extend Rifi’s term, presenting parliament speaker Nabih Berri with a proposed draft law Wednesday that would put the issue to parliament in its next session. But in the event that such efforts fail – as Rifi himself has suggested they will – then a fierce battle over Rifi’s successor may follow.

In the wake of Miqati’s resignation, allegations emerged from sources including PSP leader Walid Jumblatt that the March 8 coalition had pushed for controversial former ISF head Gen. Ali al-Hajj to replace Rifi. Indeed, al-Hajj himself proclaimed his entitlement to the position on Saturday. ISF sources, by contrast, told NOW that, according to internal procedure, the post would go to Rifi’s deputy, Inspector Gen. Roger Salem.

From March 14’s perspective, few candidates could be less welcome than al-Hajj, whose tensions with the Future Movement date back over more than a decade. Head of security for former PM Rafiq Hariri since 1992, Hajj had come to be distrusted by Hariri over time due to his close ties with Syrian military intelligence. He was thus fired in 2000, after which Syria appointed him head of the ISF in the Beqaa. By 2004, he had risen to the ISF premiership, and incurred Hariri’s further suspicions by reducing his personal protection unit from 40 officers to 8. When Hariri was assassinated in a car bomb the following year, al-Hajj was accused of tampering with evidence at the crime scene, and was arrested in a pre-dawn raid on the orders of Detlev Mehlis, commissioner of the UN International Independent Investigation Commission (UNIIIC) into Hariri’s killing. Though he was eventually released from prison in 2009 due to lack of evidence, there remains a conviction in March 14 and other circles that he was not fully innocent, with Walid Jumblatt saying Friday that he continues to “consider him politically involved in [Hariri’s] assassination.”

Accordingly, should al-Hajj secure nomination to the post, it would likely provoke major objections from March 14. “Al-Hajj cannot take over this position,” Future MP Ahmad Fatfat told NOW. “If we imagine the scenario of al-Hajj coming back to power, we are imagining the return of the Syrian intelligence dominance era.”

On the same question, Democratic Renewal (Tajaddod) Movement former MP Mosbah al-Ahdab – who, as an early opponent of Syria’s occupation of Lebanon, has had his own run-ins with the Damascus regime – told NOW that, “unfortunately, March 8 is trying to put their hands on all the security institutions in Lebanon, and this is not correct and not viable.”

Without a cabinet currently in place, however, it’s unclear how al-Hajj would actually obtain nomination. On Wednesday, NOW met with former judicial police commander Gen. Anwar Yehya at the ISF’s military beach club in Ras Beirut, who said ISF rules clearly dictate that, as the next-highest ranking official after Rifi, Inspector Gen. Roger Salem will take over as director-general when Rifi steps down on April 1st, until Salem himself reaches the maximum age of 59 on June 13th. Al-Hajj’s claims that he outranks Salem, Yehya added, were invalidated by an April 13th, 2005 decree to cancel al-Hajj’s ISF position and move him to the Interior Ministry.

“The only way for al-Hajj to become director-general is if a cabinet is formed and it meets and agrees to appoint him by a two-thirds majority,” Yehya told NOW. By implication, the March 8 coalition would need to make up at least two-thirds of the next cabinet – a prospect that looks improbable amid the various current proposals for non-partisan “unity,” “salvation,” and technocratic cabinets.

Assuming al-Hajj is not appointed, there remains the question of who will replace Salem in June. Yehya told NOW that, as next-highest in rank, the post would go to Brigadier Gen. Ibrahim Basbous, who will remain eligible for office for another year at his current rank, and two more if he is promoted to Major General.

While Yehya declined to discuss the political leanings of Salem and Basbous, he remarked that Rifi is unlikely to have appointed successors to whom he is personally opposed.

If this is the case, the ISF may well remain amicable to March 14 for the foreseeable future after all.

Yara Chehayed contributed reporting.

Friday, March 22, 2013

March 14 scrambles to keep top security ally

[Originally posted at NOW]

In an abrupt departure from wrangling over electoral laws, MPs from the Future Movement along with their March 14 allies and Walid Jumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party have made urgent attempts this week to pass a draft law that would raise the mandatory retirement age for top security officials, several of whom would otherwise be forced to step down later this year.

These officials include 59-year-old army chief General Jean Qahwaji and Internal Security Forces (ISF) head Major General Ashraf Rifi, who will turn 59 in April – the maximum age for the post. The draft law would extend both men’s terms for another three years.

President Michel Suleiman submitted the bill to cabinet on Thursday. Rifi himself expressed doubts Friday that it would pass cabinet, saying it “needs the approval of two thirds of the ministers and this is not possible because more than half of them object to an extension of my term.” Both Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), who collectively occupy 9 out of 30 seats, have explicitly opposed the proposal, arguing the government should appoint successors to the posts. Should Rifi’s extension be rejected and a successor not appointed, Rifi indicated his deputy Brigadier General Roger Salem would replace him – though Salem, himself, is due to reach retirement age this year. Rifi could not be reached for comment.

The loss of Rifi would be taken by March 14 as a significant setback. Though the movement’s leaders have officially touted the draft law as a non-partisan move to preserve national stability, few observers are in doubt that their priority is keeping Rifi in place, and indeed one Future MP admitted as much to NOW.

“After the [October 19, 2012] assassination of [ISF Information Branch head Brigadier General] Wissam al-Hassan, our security is exposed to many factors and parties, and Rifi is bravely filling his station,” said MP Ahmad Fatfat. “We trust Rifi and need him in this position. If someone is trying to move Rifi away, then he is definitely part of the assassination process, and he wants us as March 14 to be exposed,” he added, in a likely reference to Hezbollah and the FPM.

“Even Jumblatt is feeling the need for this extension,” added Fatfat, referring to the former March 14 firebrand (and long-rumored assassination target) whose party now has three ministers in the March 8-aligned cabinet. Echoing the official March 14 line, Jumblatt says his support for Rifi’s extension derives from general security concerns.

Rifi’s close ties to March 14, and the Future Movement in particular, have long been something of an open secret. “There’s a certain balance in security, based on the fact that some institutions are controlled by March 8 and others are controlled by March 14,” said former Tripoli MP Mosbah al-Ahdab of the Democratic Renewal (Tajaddod) Movement. “[Rifi] is one of the main people representing [March 14].”

This is further borne out in the US embassy cables leaked in 2010, which generally portray Rifi as a determined opponent of the Syrian regime and its key Lebanese ally, Hezbollah. The cables also make clear that sees himself and the ISF he helped build as locked in a “race against time” to neutralize the threats he believes these parties pose to Lebanon. Former US ambassador Jeffrey Feltman wrote of the ISF’s “connections to [Future Movement leader] Saad Hariri and its heavily Sunni (i.e., essentially anti-Hizballah [sic]) officer ranks.” Such ‘connections’ may even be military – one cable from 2008 quotes Jumblatt claiming that Rifi was assisting Hariri in amassing a 15,000-strong militia. In the same year, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea also reportedly told former US chargé d’affaires Michele Sison that both he and Jumblatt were trying to buy ammunition from Rifi for their own militias.

Whatever the exact nature of Rifi’s ties to March 14, the bloc evidently deems him an invaluable asset – a fact which analysts say reflects the top-heavy structure of Lebanese security institutions in general.

“This demonstrates the continuing importance of individual authorities within the Lebanese security architecture,” said Elias Muhanna, assistant professor at Brown University and author of the Qifa Nabki blog. “There is no such thing as institutional memory in these intelligence branches; the inner circle is extremely small and therefore extremely valuable.”

Indeed, this heavy reliance on individuals is a key weakness of the system that requires reform, according to Ahdab.

“I think this all needs to be reviewed,” he told NOW. “Because prolonging the mandate for Rifi also means maintaining the same security structure and renewing other [security] positions. So the question is do we want to renew this, or would we like to change it?”

“Of course, we’d like to change it. Perhaps the timing is not right. But definitely this is not the solution; this is prolonging a situation where the state is absolutely losing ground and not controlling what is happening.”

“We saw that starting in Tripoli, and now it’s spreading all over Lebanon.”

Yara Chehayed contributed reporting.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

What's next for March 14?

[Originally posted at NOW Lebanon]

Wednesday’s postponement until January of a national dialogue session scheduled for Thursday demonstrated the continuing failure to break the political deadlock into which the country plunged after October’s dramatic assassination of intelligence chief Wissam al-Hassan.

In the days following Hassan’s killing, which groups including the March 14 coalition and Walid Jumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) blamed on Syria, March 14 announced a complete boycott of all government and parliamentary activity until the current cabinet, led by Prime Minister Najib Miqati, was dissolved.

One month later, however, the cabinet remains intact and even appears to have a degree of support from March 14’s international allies, including the United States and the European Union, who have expressed fears of a power vacuum.

Accordingly, March 14’s boycott tactic has faced criticism even from those sympathetic to its broader vision. A leading independent politician with close ties to March 14 told NOW Lebanon that he preferred not to comment on the boycott, “because I would be forced to criticize it, and now is not the time to do that.”

Recently, both President Michel Suleiman and the PSP have been trying to coax March 14 back into all-party talks.

How exactly March 14 could be induced to embrace dialogue, however, is unclear. One option, proposed by former MP Mosbah al-Ahdab of the independent Tajaddod Movement, is for the coalition to launch a separate initiative on its own terms. “A solution would be for them to set the points that should be taken into consideration and agreed by the other side in order to launch a new dialogue,” he told NOW. “We’re back to square zero, we need to start all over again, and I think they should be setting a priority list, or let’s say starting points, for a new discussion.”

However, Dr Imad Salameh, political science professor at the Lebanese American University, believes nothing short of the cabinet’s collapse will bring March 14 to a dialogue table. “March 14 has no way out other than confronting the current government,” he told NOW. “For years, March 14 has been trapped over and over into senseless dialogue in which it always ends up making concessions. That’s why the resignation of this government is a pre-requisite for further dialogue.”

Certainly that was the view of March 14 partisans interviewed by NOW at the sit-in opposite Beirut’s Grand Serail on Tuesday evening. Since October 20 – the day after Hassan’s assassination – around half a dozen tents have been erected outside the Prime Minister’s office, and the activists who have spent their days and nights there told NOW they aren’t budging.

“The only compromise we will accept is that the government goes. Nothing less,” said Jihad Naamani of the Future Movement. When asked if he felt the sit-in was achieving its goals, Naamani said, “Yes, just by keeping our camp alive and having lots of people coming down every night for meetings and seminars, we are accomplishing our part of the goal.” While admitting that the government had succeeded in fending off March 14’s demands thus far, Naamani asserted that the cabinet would fall “within two or three months” at the most.

Contra Ahdab, Salameh argues the onus is in fact on March 8, not March 14, to break the deadlock. “The way out is not March 14’s responsibility as far as I’m concerned, it’s the responsibility of the current government and those who control it, particularly Hezbollah. If [the latter] want to yield a fair share of power and control of security apparatuses, which seem to have totally slipped into the hands of [March 8], then March 14 will have reason to negotiate.”

PSP secretary-general Zafer Nasser, however, questions how such an agreement could be reached without March 14 agreeing to talk in the first place. “One cannot offer anything to them if they don’t participate in dialogue,” he told NOW. “One has to sit with them and talk so they offer something and the other party offers something. You cannot tell them, ‘Here you go, this is a settlement’ and then ask them to attend dialogue. They would say, ‘Why attend dialogue if a settlement has already been reached?’”

To this, Salameh retorts that March 8 shares the blame for the lack of talks. “The media says [that March 14 is the one blocking dialogue], but in actuality one should ask what are the issues being discussed? Are we going to negotiate whether Hezbollah’s arms will become subject to government control? Are we going to negotiate a new government? Are we going to negotiate the restructuring of the security apparatuses?” Without these items on the table, says Salameh, dialogue “will only lead to additional concessions on March 14’s behalf and will strengthen the position of the government and Hezbollah.”

Amani Hamad contributed reporting.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Interview with Walid Jumblatt

[Originally posted at NOW Lebanon]

As we shuffled into a lavish sitting room in his Ottoman-era mansion in Moukhtara first thing Tuesday morning, Walid Jumblatt’s day job was already underway. We joined what soon became a line of people waiting, for whatever purpose—requesting tuition fees for children, resolving a dispute with the neighbors in Clemenceau—to meet the Druze chieftain. When he entered, his tall, lanky frame stooped as he walked, his facial expression half-annoyed and half-amused, as though incredulous at having to deal with such banality.

After speedily acceding to a few requests, he ushered us into another sitting room, adorned with (among other things) a floor-to-ceiling portrait of slain Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. In general, walking through the house feels like touring Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace. “But I don’t have the Bosphorus outside,” he replied when NOW Lebanon remarked this. “It’s a beautiful city. The only other city as beautiful, until they destroyed it, was Aleppo.”

Such was the tone for much of our conversation with the enigmatic Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader. His reputed political acumen—along with his less-flattering notoriety for abruptly switching allegiances—have earned him the nickname “the weathervane”; a man “whose every premonitory move [is] dissected by those trying to get a sense of Lebanon’s political winds,” as Michael Young once put it. If that is so, then there appears to be an uncertain breeze in Moukhtara today. For though he tells NOW that he is “not March 8,” those in the March 14 coalition hoping for Jumblatt jumping ship once again to their side may well be in for disappointment.

There were reports over the weekend that the PSP is planning an initiative to ease internal strife and promote dialogue. Why did you decide to do this?

Jumblatt: We have an initiative parallel to the efforts of the President Suleiman who is calling for dialogue. We just want to help President Suleiman. At the same time we have consulted with Prime Minister Miqati and [Parliament Speaker] Nabih Berri. We have to find a way to get out of this blockade where nobody is speaking with anybody, and the only way to reach that is launching an initiative. I hope it will succeed, I don’t know. I have charged my comrades in the party to go and visit all the political parties and actors possible, starting tomorrow, from March 14 to March 8 to independents.

Why did you not join March 14’s recent boycott of the cabinet?

Jumblatt: Why should I join them? I’m not March 14!

But you openly blamed Syria for the assassination of Wissam al-Hassan.

Jumblatt: Yes, and they are blaming Miqati. Miqati did not kill Wissam al-Hassan. I’m sorry, I refuse categorically all the accusations of March 14 against Miqati.

The day after Hassan’s death, we saw PSP flags at the March 14 Youth rally.

Jumblatt: They have removed those flags. This is a small trap fixed by some idiots. We are not March 14. And I’m not March 8. I’m just in this coalition trying to fix up things as much as I can, taking into account the environment which is terribly sectarian, and some people don’t care, it seems. They’re just attacking here and there; they don’t care about the possible sectarian strife that could engulf Lebanon.

Which people are you referring to?

Jumblatt: Some high-ranking leaders. Because in this country everyone is becoming high-ranking, nobody is low-ranking.

What do you think of the Ahmad al-Assir movement?

Jumblatt: When the moderate Future Movement is absent, any vacuum is filled, so this is why Sheikh Saad [Hariri] should come back and lead what his father did: the moderate Sunni trend.

How are your relations with Hariri?

Jumblatt: We are friends on personal terms but we differ on political issues. We speak occasionally.

Regarding Hassan’s assassination, do you think any Lebanese parties were also involved?

Jumblatt: I just accused the Syrian intelligence. Of course they have partners and agents here. But I’m not going to accuse a political party, like others did, because they don’t care if there is sectarian strife. And I was very clear, just as with the murder of Rafiq al-Hariri, that if Hezbollah has enough evidence that Hariri was killed by the Israelis, as Sayyed Hassan claimed at one point, then let him present this evidence to the international tribunal. I’m not going to accuse any party because my concern is that civil strife must stop.

So even if you have suspicions, you’re not going to voice them so as to maintain stability?

Jumblatt: I do not have suspicions. I am not a lawyer or a prosecutor. You have an international tribunal where people can go and present evidence.

If you believe the Syrian regime is killing senior Lebanese officials, then why do you support the “dissociation” policy? Shouldn’t Syria be considered an enemy state, like Israel?

Jumblatt: Syria being an enemy state? Not at all, I’m sorry. This is a monstrosity. We are accusing the regime, but Syria is Syria, Syria is our background, Syria helped us during the civil war, it fixed the balance inside Lebanon, it helped create the Taif Agreement, it supported the resistance. We have to distinguish between the regime and the people. And the army, which fought very bravely against Israelis during the 1982 invasion.

So the regime itself should not be considered an enemy?

Jumblatt: OK, if it is, then what? Tell me what can we do? This is the nineteenth month of the Syrian revolt and the whole international community is just doing nothing. They are watching Syria being systematically destroyed. It seems the “Friends of Syria” don’t care about Syria.

How can the Syrian conflict be ended?

Jumblatt: Well, if you have a solution, tell me. Just after the battle of Baba Amr, I called everybody in the West that I know—the British, the French—to help the rebels to get adequate weapons to shoot down helicopters. They said, “We can’t do it because it will end up in civil war.” And at that time, the civil war began.

How do you feel about the Druze in Syria?

Jumblatt: I’m concerned about Syria. The Druze are Syrian people. I don’t look at the sectarian aspect.

If there is no intervention in Syria, what happens?

Jumblatt: Nobody asked for intervention in Syria; just helping the Syrian rebels. Now it’s chaotic, because everybody is intervening in his own way, from the Arab world and from individuals, and now we have the situation whereby yesterday in Aleppo some so-called free brigades announced they don’t want to be part of the Doha Agreement, they have announced the “Islamic Emirates” in Aleppo. This is the disorganized help of the Arab and Western world because everybody is sponsoring somebody else. And what’s the result? Total chaos.

Do you worry about a Sunni-Shiite war in Lebanon?

Jumblatt: When I say sectarian strife I’m speaking about some Sunnis and some Shiites. This cannot be solved except by sitting at a table and talking to each other. That’s it. And if some in March 14 still insist that the weapons of Hezbollah can be delivered at any price? No. The weapons are a very sensitive issue, and these weapons should be part of the defensive strategy that is being elaborated by President Suleiman. One day these weapons could be part of the Lebanese army, but that cannot be at the push of a button, we have to wait. I mean it took the Irish 20 years to decommission the weapons between Protestants and Catholics. Now here it’s a much more difficult issue.

You said recently that it will take a new Taif Agreement to resolve Hezbollah’s weapons. What did you mean by that?

Jumblatt: I was assaulted, directly by everybody, by all the excited people of March 14. I did not say that. Even if I said that, it was a slip of the tongue. [Laughs]

In that case, how do you advocate resolving the issue?

Jumblatt: You have to adequately address the Shiite community. You have to speak to them. But at the same time, some have committed a big error, because they have been ordered, by the Iranians, I don’t know, to go and fight inside Syria for the regime. But this is not their policy, this is the policy of Iran. I hope that one day the Iranians will change and address the Syrian people and not the regime, because they are losing a lot of support for their stance. At the same time, some parties of March 14 also are arming the rebels, so the policy of [dissociation] should be addressed to both parties; to Hezbollah and March 14.

Regarding elections, is there an electoral law you favor?

Jumblatt: I’ve not been consulted by anybody. I just hear rumors that some high-ranking people want 50 districts, and others want proportional representation. I have not been consulted. I am ready to discuss to see. Because some people have already started fixing their Armani dresses to become president.

Do you feel the law needs to be changed?

Jumblatt: Of course, one day we have to fix up a modern law, but to do that you have to fix up a modern Lebanon, and to fix up a modern Lebanon, my father spent 19 years trying to do it, and he failed to deconfessionalize the system. I mean we are not even able to fix the civil marriage issue, which is stupid. We oblige the young Lebanese people to go to Cyprus, to Istanbul, to Paris, but here we don’t allow it because the clerics, Muslim and Christian, are against it. They have privileges; they get money to separate the people.

Going back to elections, if we assume the 2009 law is used again, you will likely win in Shouf and Aley, so the question on many minds is whether you will align with March 8 or 14?

Jumblatt: I will align with myself for the time being. I stick to my own belief that we have to fix up a kind of middle ground to avoid this terrible division between 14 and 8.

Do you foresee any changes in Christian districts?

Jumblatt: I have no idea, I don’t work on statistics. They work, they are obsessed with statistics. Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea are obsessed, I really don’t care. My concern is how to deal peacefully with each other.

After Hassan’s assassination, do you fear assassination yourself?

Jumblatt: I have never spoken about myself, like others, who like to speak about themselves, and to have bodyguards and huge convoys. Like my father, I have relied on destiny. I am here just because I like it.

So you’re not more or less afraid than before?

Jumblatt: I was never afraid. When you get afraid like others you get paralyzed mentally.

Do you think the Gaza conflict might affect Lebanon?

Jumblatt: No, Gaza just proved once again that the arrogance of Israelis can just be destroyed, [like] when the Israelis invaded Beirut in 1982. This myth of Israeli superiority is again buried by the rockets of Hamas, by the people of Lebanon, seven times. So it’s a myth, but what can we do, this state is based on a big fallacy supported by the West. One day, the West will discover that the huge amount of money they spend on Israel is just a catastrophe. Because only a peaceful solution based on two states can—maybe—reach some stability. I think maybe it’s too late, because now with the settlers there’s no space for two states.

So you prefer a one-state solution?

Jumblatt: Well this was an intellectual approach by people like Edward Said, but consider now the right-wing tendency of most Israeli society and the absence of the peace movement, except one wise guy, he’s a friend of mine and we correspond with each other, Uri Avnery, and I always read his articles and send comments. Amos Oz too, and Amira Hass, she’s excellent. But the peace movement which demonstrated in Tel Aviv after Sabra and Shatila and caused Sharon’s downfall is no more.

You wrote this week that Gaza could lead to a “new status quo.” What did you mean?

Jumblatt: After the 1973 war came the Camp David agreement, which separated Egypt from the Arabs. But now Gaza is fixing up a new formula. The inner land of Egypt is Gaza, and the Egyptians are always concerned about the fate of Palestine. So Gaza is defying the old order. Same thing in Golan, one day the ceasefire agreement of 1973 will be changed by [whoever] comes in control of the Golan Heights. Lebanon will also have a new status quo [once] we get back the occupied territories of Shebaa. Israel is no more safe from its surroundings. Later on, I hope that King Abdullah will fix up reforms. But the surroundings of Israel have changed. Fortunately that’s good.

Are you worried about the rise of Islamists across the region?

Jumblatt: No, not at all. We cannot change the Arab world. Do you want somebody to convert them? To what? We have to take into account the rise of Islam, be it Shiite or Sunni, and try to see the future and develop, not only culturally but economically. We have so much wealth in this Arab world spent stupidly on buying weapons or treasury bonds. We can have our own development in all the Arab world.

This interview has been condensed and edited.

Justin Salhani contributed questioning.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

The Left and the Non-Benign Movement

[Originally posted at NOW Lebanon]

There isn’t one leftist in Lebanon who doesn’t know to snicker at Walid Jumblatt’s pretensions to “progressive socialism.” So it was truly an irony that he alone should have made the morally obvious point that this week’s Non-Aligned Movement summit in Tehran is a congregation, not of courageous and downtrodden freedom fighters, but of some of the most diabolically reactionary, fascistic and blood-drenched despots on the planet.

Pointing to the presence of a Damascus representative in particular, the old Soviet ally impugned “Arab leaders who [are] sitting alongside those who represent a bulwark against the rights of the Syrian people and their epic struggle.”

It is indeed dismaying to watch the “revolutionaries” of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, not to mention the Palestinian leadership, linking fraternal arms with every bigot and butcher from Marrakesh to Muscat. Not that the shame is confined to the Arab world – hands have been warmly extended to the dictatorships of Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Venezuela and Zimbabwe too, inter multa alia.

Yet the elephant in the room is of course the host state itself; the inimitable Islamic Republic of Iran. This dysfunctional regime may not be the Third Reich that its rivals unceasingly tell us it is, but it certainly keeps human rights NGOs in business: hundreds of executions, sometimes of children; floggings and amputations for lesser criminals; routine use of torture; de jure second-class citizenship for women, minorities and homosexuals; imprisonment of political rivals, including the head of the opposition, Mir Hossein Mousavi; and zero free speech. And that’s just in 2012.

Not that one would hear a word about this from the Lebanese left – a left that is not usually coy about its grievances. The same activists that denounce rock concerts in Tel Aviv as “whitewashing” Israeli apartheid are apparently unperturbed by the Iranian state media eulogizing the “poetic justice” of “the majority of the world […] standing with Iran” at this week’s summit in the face of the “heinous criminality” of the West. “So long vilified by Washington and its quislings, Iran is now being vindicated by the rest of the world,” it gloats.

Not In My Name, thank you very much.

Saturday, August 20, 2011

Listening Without Hearing: A review of Michael J. Totten's 'The Road to Fatima Gate: The Beirut Spring, the Rise of Hezbollah, and the Iranian War Against Israel'


This new book, the first from Michael J. Totten, the award-winning blogger described by Jeffrey Goldberg as “America’s premier reporter of the Arab states”, is one of several modest strengths and one great, glaring weakness. Throughout the book, which follows Totten’s experiences of Lebanon and Israel from 2005 to 2009, one continuously battles the temptation to do with it what Thomas Jefferson famously did with the Bible, and take a pair of scissors to all the disagreeable paragraphs in order to leave oneself with a much abbreviated but more or less satisfactory refinement. Had Totten or his editors thought to do this for us, a review of measured but warm commendation would have followed below. Alas, like Michelangelo’s David, I can only work with what I’ve been given. 

Totten is strongest, perhaps unsurprisingly, on events to which he was a personal witness, or when speaking directly with other personal witnesses. Thus he has illuminating exchanges with people like Nabil Abou-Charaf, an activist who was being beaten up and arrested for demonstrating against the Syrian occupation of Lebanon when there were “only 200” others doing so; long before the million people took to the streets on the day in 2005 that gave the anti-Syrian ‘March 14’ movement its name. He’s given a tour of the Hizbullah-controlled statelet south of the Litani river by a secular Shia named Leena (“I like to drink and dance on tables,” she said. “So of course I don’t agree with Hezbollah”), who takes him to the unique Alawite village of Ghajar; which is half in Lebanon, half in Israel, and was until 1967 fully in Syria; and to Kfar Kila, a village so close to the Israeli town of Metula that Totten initially doesn’t realise the two are separated by an almost invisible border fence. As the two of them stand close enough to throw “a hand grenade into an Israeli’s kitchen window”, Leena expresses to him the view – perhaps unusual for someone raised in the south - that “[w]e need a peace treaty [and] an open border [with Israel]. Think about what that would do for the economies of both countries”. And he’s driven around the Beirut suburb of Haret Hreik - more commonly known as al-Dahyeh - the “de facto sovereign police state” of Hizbullah, where despite the poverty and all the unmistakeable signs of totalitarianism, Totten surprisingly notices several women “[refusing] to wear headscarves and [opting] instead for tight blouses, spray-on jeans, and knee-high boots”. 

This kind of contradiction within the pro-Syrian ‘March 8’ camp is reinforced when Totten meets Aounists, the peculiar Christian allies of Hizbullah, who tell him they abhor the corruption of the Hariri-Siniora platform but nevertheless “love America”. Or when he meets an outright Hizbullah partisan from al-Dahyeh who tells him, “I like drinking and chasing girls and having a good time”. Or when an official Hizbullah spokesperson, Mohammad Afif, tells him that “Hezbollah sincerely [hopes] for peace and a mutually agreeable settlement between Israelis and Arabs”.

On the subject of contradictions, one of the finer sub-plots of Fatima is the now-famous declension and eventual defection of Walid Jumblatt, the za’im or chieftain of the Druze sect, from radical March 14 agitator to subdued and subjugated March 8 stooge. Totten runs through the conventional explanation: since the Druze, the historical inhabitants of the beautiful Chouf mountains south-east of Beirut, are too few in number to have a realistic chance of a state of their own, their leaders are forever condemned to a weathervane existence; making and unmaking friends as the winds of power shift; “assessing”, as Walid’s father Kamal once put it, “what must be said and what can be said”. Hizbullah’s increasing impatience with Jumblatt after 2005, which culminated in their invasion of the Chouf in 2008 (where, happily, they were annihilated), forced him to revise the anti-Syrian ‘assessment’ he had made after Hariri’s assassination – which was itself a re-assessment of his previous truce with the Assad crime family that had, he strongly suspected, murdered his father in 1977.

Yet Totten’s profile of the man, informed by several personal encounters (including a very enviable lunch at Jumblatt’s mountain palace accompanied by Hanin Ghaddar, one of my favourite Lebanese journalists, as well as Christopher Hitchens, one of my favourite writers, full stop), illustrates that there is more to the man’s politics than mere cynicism and opportunism. In particular, it permits one to be sceptical of the sincerity of his later conciliation with March 8:

“How can we control our own destiny,” he said after inviting us to sit in his salon, “when we have a state within the state called the state of Hezbollah? When we have open borders to all kinds of traffic and weapons and people from Syria to Lebanon? Hezbollah has said it before and will say it now: ‘Thank God the Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon defend the interests of the Iranian Revolution.’ As long as we have this Syrian regime next door, we won’t have a sovereign Lebanon.”

It’s difficult to imagine that any new information surfaced to refute any of the above, or that Jumblatt suddenly un-learnt it overnight. The more likely explanation, as Totten argues well, is that the above is still a fairly accurate representation of Jumblatt’s private position, but the events of 2008 forced him to do what every za’im will ultimately do when pressured: put the interests of the sect first. The Druze may have held off Hizbullah’s first attack, but it wasn’t an enmity that favoured them in the long run. With his dominance of al-Dahyeh to the north-west, the Beqaa valley to the east and everything to the south, as well as the increasing Shiisation of historically Christian areas nearby such as Jezzine, Nasrallah had Jumblatt surrounded, and could sever his economic and military supply chain. Thus Jumblatt switched sides not because of ideology, nor even out of common vanity or venality, but because the alternative was to allow the genocide of his people. Such are the methods by which ‘The Resistance’ consolidates its power.

Totten has, in other words, insight to offer. But he suffers from the one enormous intellectual and moral blind spot that so often afflicts Western observers of the Middle East: he’s unwilling to suspect anything other than the highest and noblest of Israeli intentions. My radar – one must always keep one finely calibrated, especially when reading American writers – had already flickered in the chapters prior to the 2006 war, when Totten visits the border and writes as if the ill-feeling across it were entirely one way:

Hizbullah’s guerrillas were dug into the hills and holed up behind us in Kfar Kila’s houses. I tried to imagine how I would feel as an American if the Taliban controlled territory thirty or forty feet from my house. (p. 89)

Before a single shot is fired, then, we are under no illusion as to whose side our author is on. And then the July War, or the Second Lebanon War, breaks out and Totten’s critical faculties abandon him altogether. At every turn, his apparent intention is not to report the events of the war, but to come up with excuses and apologies for Israel’s behaviour. He reaches without shame for all the classic tropes about ‘purity of arms’, often simply crediting official IDF statements at face value without the smallest curiosity as to their veracity. Much of what he writes has not only been challenged but in fact comprehensively discredited by third-party examinations of the evidence. He thus leaves the reader no choice but to wonder if he is either: i) ignorant, and thus an incompetent journalist; or ii) biased, and thus not even a journalist but a propagandist. 

I think it’s worth going into this in some detail, because Fatima is one of the best examples I’ve seen of an otherwise trenchant analysis compromised to the point of near-uselessness by Israeli exceptionalism. I’ll start with his claim that the “hatred for Israel among Lebanon’s Shia [has] little to do with Jews or Israel” (pp. 100-101). According to Totten, the Shia of the south have no legitimate grievance against Israel of any kind; their irrational animosity being no more than generic Islamic bigotry imported from Iran. I don’t think I bow to many people in my contempt for Khomeinism, and the anti-Semitic filth in which it trades, but for Totten to claim that, in effect, the Shiites fired the first shot is just terrible history. 

After all, it was in 1978 – a year before Khomeini came to power in Tehran – that the Israelis launched Operation Litani, their first full-dress invasion of Lebanon, provoked by the killing of 37 Israeli civilians kidnapped by Palestinian gunmen. Once the Israelis announced their intention to occupy a ‘security belt’ between the border and the Litani river, the PLO simply moved its forces north of the river, with the result that of the roughly 2,000 killed by Israeli air strikes and ground offensives, almost all were civilians. Given that the killings took place in the south, it follows that almost all the dead were Shiites, too. In Robert Fisk’s harrowing account of the invasion in Pity the Nation, as well as describing gruesome scenes of entire families decapitated, delimbed or otherwise dismantled, he notes “at least one war crime committed by the Israelis”: the strangling of four Lebanese peasants by Lieutenant Daniel Pinto; and the execution of a prisoner of war by Lieutenant-Colonel Arye Sadeh (p. 131). Furthermore, in a chilling precursor to what would happen in Sabra and Chatila four years later:

[The Phalangists] forced a large group of Shia men, women and children into a mosque in the village of Khiam and, under the eyes of Israeli officers, machine-gunned all of them to death. Only the persistence of Jonathan Randal of The Washington Post brought this slaughter – a real act of ‘terrorism’ if ever there was one – to light. Yet it made no difference to the Israelis. They publicly praised the Christian gunmen as outstanding patriots who alone had stood firm against Palestinian ‘terrorists’. (p. 137)

Totten makes no mention of any of this, and I think I might know why. For while he quotes six times from New York Times correspondent Thomas Friedman’s rather summary account of the civil war, From Beirut to Jerusalem, he doesn’t once cite Fisk’s far more expansive Pity (though he does begin one chapter with a line from the same Khalil Gibran poem from which Fisk took his title – without, it should be said, clarifying whether he came to it via Fisk or not). Friedman himself makes just one passing reference to what he calls the Israeli “incursion” in ’78 (p. 52), without saying anything about war crimes or the Khiam massacre. Thus it’s possible – on the assumption that he hasn’t read Pity – that Totten simply does not know how disastrous ‘Litani’ actually was, and how rapidly the Israelis had made enemies of a friendly Shiite population.

Proceeding to 2006, Totten makes it his task to convince us that although the Lebanese death toll exceeded 1,100, compared to the 55 dead Israelis, the Israelis were nevertheless the good guys because – as always - they restricted themselves to military targets:

Unlike Hezbollah, though, [the Israelis] were shooting at actual targets. They were not just firing at random toward Lebanese farmland and towns. IDF soldiers on the other side of the border marked specific targets and called in coordinates. (p. 122)

He writes this even while he knows, and indeed has already told us, that these same ‘targets’ included “infrastructure throughout the country, including roads, bridges, and Beirut’s international airport” (pp. 117-8). Ah, says Totten, but this too is Hizbullah’s fault, for launching their attacks from built-up civilian areas:

Perhaps Hezbollah neither knew nor cared, but installing military targets like antiaircraft guns in residential neighbourhoods is against the laws of war. It recklessly endangers the civilians who live there. Meanwhile destroying an antiaircraft gun in a residential neighbourhood with an air strike isn’t a war crime. The laws and conventions of war are absolutely clear about this, and they squarely said Hezbollah was at fault for turning those areas into targets. (p. 133)

It’s here that Totten really trips himself up. He cites a link to the Laws of Armed Conflict (LOAC), and in so doing incurs a serious irony at his own expense. For his website of choice notes that “[t]hree important LOAC principles govern armed conflict – military necessity, distinction, and proportionality”. And it’s exactly in these three respects that preeminent human rights organisations – including not only western ones such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, but even the Israeli B’Tselem – found Israel’s conduct in the 2006 war to be in violation of international humanitarian law. I’ll start with the first two, which are related. 

“Military necessity”, according to the LOAC as cited by Totten, “requires combat forces to engage in only those acts necessary to accomplish a legitimate military objective. Attacks shall be limited strictly to military objectives”. Similarly, distinction “means discriminating between lawful combatant targets and noncombatant targets such as civilians, civilian property, POWs, and wounded personnel who are out of combat. The central idea of distinction is to only engage valid military targets. An indiscriminate attack is one that strikes military objectives and civilians or civilian objects without distinction”. 

A 249-page Human Rights Watch report, Why They Died: Civilian Casualties in Lebanon during the 2006 War, found that after looking at 94 separate Israeli air, artillery and ground attacks that led to roughly half the Lebanese deaths in the conflict:

[T]he primary reason for the high Lebanese civilian death toll during the conflict was Israel’s frequent failure to abide by a fundamental obligation of the laws of war, the duty to distinguish at all times between military targets that can be legitimately attacked, and civilians, who are not subject to attack. This was compounded by Israel’s failure to take adequate safeguards to prevent civilian casualties [...] Israel often, even though not deliberately attacking civilians, did not distinguish between military objectives and civilians or civilian objects as required by humanitarian law [...] Israel also engaged in widespread bombardment of civilian areas that was indiscriminate.

The sheer quantity of munitions fired at southern Lebanon – some 7,000 air attacks along with approximately 170,000 artillery shells and equally substantial naval bombardment – made the very pretence of ‘distinction’ laughable, as did the “extensive” use of cluster bombs (bombs which explode into several further bombs), which are indiscriminate by design. (HRW reports elsewhere that Hizbullah also used cluster bombs.) Israel’s primary excuse for the ruthlessness of its attacks was that it gave advance warnings for civilians to flee, and thus anyone choosing to remain must have been a Hizbullah militant or sympathiser, and thus in either case a ‘terrorist’. For instance, on July 27th, the Israeli justice minister Haim Ramon was quoted by the BBC as saying, “All those now in south Lebanon are terrorists who are related in some way to Hezbollah”. 

The HRW report lists the many serious problems with this argument. For one, Israel often left very little time – in some cases, just two hours - between the issue of a warning and the start of an attack. For another, they rarely gave indication as to which evacuation routes would be ‘safe’, and thus in dozens of cases, civilians were killed whilst dutifully fleeing as instructed. For another, as Israel well knew from its many previous attacks on south Lebanon, there were always going to be certain civilians who were unable to leave, whether due to poverty, infirmity or simple lack of transport. For yet another, “[e]ven if civilians who remained did so because they were Hezbollah supporters – a claim contradicted by Human Rights Watch’s research, which found that most of those who remained behind stayed because they were too old, sickly or poor to leave – Israel would not have been justified in attacking them. The political leanings of the civilian population in a given area or village is [sic] irrelevant as far as their civilian status is concerned”. In summary, even if Israel had issued warnings in a timely manner with safe evacuation routes clearly identified, “those warnings [would] not relieve Israel from its obligations at all times to distinguish between combatants and civilians and to take all feasible precautions to protect civilians from harm”. 

Specifically addressing Israel’s other excuse, echoed by Totten above, that the high civilian death count arose from Hizbullah locating its military operations in built-up civilian areas, the HRW report had the following to say:

Human Rights Watch did not find evidence [...] that Hezbollah routinely located its rockets inside or near civilian homes. Rather, we found strong evidence that Hezbollah had stored most of its rockets inside bunkers and weapon storage facilities located in uninhabited fields and valleys. Similarly, while we found that Hezbollah fighters launched rockets from villages on some occasions, and may have committed shielding, a war crime, when it [sic] purposefully and repeatedly fired rockets from the vicinity of UN observer posts with the possible intent of deterring Israeli counterfire, we did not find evidence that Hezbollah otherwise fired its rockets from populated areas. The available evidence indicates that in the vast majority of cases Hezbollah fighters left populated civilian areas as soon as the fighting started and fired the majority of their rockets from pre-prepared positions in largely unpopulated valleys and fields outside villages.

(For the record, and contrary to the pathetic, self-pitying whines of the Dershowitz-Phillips-Foxman contingent that Israel gets ‘singled out’ for criticism, Human Rights Watch issued a separate report sternly detailing war crimes committed by Hizbullah, entitled Civilians under Assault: Hezbollah’s Rocket Attacks on Israel in the 2006 War.)

Moving on to the question of military necessity, the HRW report notes that:

Israel sought to define a broad swath of civilians and civilian objects as military objectives. Israeli officials and commanders ostensibly recognized the humanitarian law requirement that they could target only military objectives but then unlawfully widened the scope of what they considered a legitimate military target. In doing so they conducted numerous attacks that were indiscriminate, disproportionate, and otherwise unjustified. Such attacks are serious violations of international humanitarian law. 

An Amnesty International report titled Deliberate destruction or “collateral damage”? Israeli attacks on civilian infrastructure elucidates the novelty of the Israeli definition of a ‘legitimate military target’. The list of casualties includes all major airports, seaports, power stations, water and sewage treatment plants and electricity facilities; at least 80 bridges; 94 roads; more than 25 petrol stations; around 900 commercial enterprises; 2 government hospitals; countless factories, farms and supermarkets; not to mention the more than 30,000 residential and commercial properties converted to rubble. Transmission infrastructure for major television stations was destroyed, including the transmitters for Future TV, one of the most anti-Hizbullah networks in the country. Production facilities for such dangerous goods as dairy, plastics and tissue paper were annihilated. The hits to the electrical grid were so total that the entire south of the country was “completely without power by the time the ceasefire was announced”. The damage to water facilities and the resultant lack of clean water were so severe in parts that a spokesman for the UN Children’s Fund predicted that children would start dying if the situation were not immediately rectified. There was even a full-scale environmental disaster after the bombing of the Jiyeh power station caused “15,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil to leak into the sea”, characterised by the UN Environmental Program as one of the worst ever seen in the region.

Plainly, Israel’s attacks were not “limited to strictly military objectives”, as the LOAC requires. But then, there was no reason to expect they would be, when the IDF Chief of Staff himself, Brigadier General Dan Halutz, was quoted in the London Times as saying that, “Nothing is safe (in Lebanon), as simple as that”. Indeed, Halutz was not a man generally known for his mercy or magnanimity – word also got out that he had ordered the IAF to bomb 10 buildings in al-Dahyeh for every one rocket fired at Haifa.

Which brings us to the third LOAC principle – proportionality – of which Israel was also found to be in systematic violation in the 2006 war. As defined on the website cited by Totten, proportionality “prohibits the use of any kind or degree of force that exceeds that needed to accomplish the military objective. Proportionality compares the military advantage gained to the harm inflicted while gaining this advantage [and] seeks to prevent an attack in situations where civilian casualties would clearly outweigh military gains”. 

Needless to say, any attack that fails the tests of military necessity and/or distinction is a violation of proportionality ipso facto. But the evidence suggests that even where Israel’s attacks met the criteria of necessity and distinction, they overwhelmingly failed the proportionality test. A particularly egregious example concerns Israel’s impeding the transit of humanitarian and medical aid to the very civilian populations for whose casualties it was responsible. As aforementioned, Israeli air strikes destroyed at least 94 main roads, predominantly in the south. Let us suppose for argument’s sake that this qualifies as a military necessity, on the grounds that it tangibly disrupts Hizbullah’s weapons supplies. Let us suppose further – though this is more dubious - that it satisfies the distinction requirement, insofar as a road is not a civilian per se. Even were this the case, the following incident reported by Amnesty International is simply an open-and-shut violation of international law:

On 6 August, officials of UNIFIL again attempted to secure a go-ahead from the Israeli authorities to build a new temporary bridge over the Litani river to facilitate the transport of vital humanitarian supplies to the beleaguered residents of the south. Israel denied permission, warning that any new bridge would also be blown up. According to UN officials, the Israeli military said that UNIFIL engineers would themselves become a target if they attempted any repairs to the bridge. 

Thus the more than 100,000 residents of Tyre, Lebanon’s fourth largest city, were not only denied electricity and clean water, but basic medical aid too. Did this apparent cruelty in fact bring about a tremendous military advantage, as the IDF’s stated policy would imply? The Amnesty International report suggests exactly the opposite:

[Our] delegates in Lebanon saw many roads hit by precision-guided munitions whose warheads created craters 4m – 5m deep and about 7m wide. This cratering has generally been justified as necessary to impede the movement of Hizbullah fighters, but more often than not the craters did not close the road, as they were to the side rather than in the middle of the road. Travel by car remained possible by simply driving round the craters, although it impeded trucks carrying supplies and aid. [Italics mine.]

In aggregate, then, the policy of road bombing inflicted grave harm on over a hundred thousand civilians in return for virtually zero military advantage: the very definition of disproportionality. 

Not that readers of Fatima will once find Totten allowing for any breaches of the laws of war by Israel. It’s odd, to say the least, that a chronicler of the 2006 war should invoke the LOAC so righteously without, apparently, making even a cursory interrogation of the readily available evidence concerning their violation in that conflict. Yet he is, at times, dimly aware of a divorce between what Norman Finkelstein called the ‘image’ and the ‘reality’ of Israel:

Whatever remaining scrap of sympathy or understanding some Lebanese had for Israel’s point of view vaporized after “Qana” was repeated. The Israelis knew they screwed up, and they knew they screwed up badly [...] I told Michael Oren that I’m not normally pessimistic about the performance of Western armies in wars but that this one didn’t look good. (p. 124)

As with his patience-depleting America/Taliban analogy, it’s as if Totten is entirely oblivious to how blatantly he’s signalling his loyalties (the IDF is a “Western” army? Really?). While everything Hizbullah does is unquestioningly described as “terrorism”, when Israel is found systematically violating the laws of war it has “screwed up”, or “screwed up badly”, or its handling of the war has been “inept” (p. 275) or “incompetent” (p. 278). These euphemisms may help him sleep at night, and protect his publisher from the Anti-Defamation League, but one thing they do not do is recommend him as an objective free-thinker. Nobody denies that Hizbullah actively seeks to kill civilians; that they meet Martin Amis’ brilliant definition of terrorists as those who “expend ingenuity” in the killing of civilians. But when Israel is so demonstrably and titanically indifferent to the presence of civilians in its targets, does it really make a difference? How far can the ‘collateral damage’ argument be stretched? With Israel apologists, one sometimes imagines they’d justify the use of a nuclear bomb on a city centre so long as they were sure the pilot was aiming for a ‘terrorist’. Another way of putting the question is: which of the two would you find the more ‘terrifying’ – a home-made Katyusha rocket fired at you from a kilometre away, or a series of Israeli air strikes aimed at your next-door neighbour? (Actually, Totten inadvertently answers this question himself, when he writes, “I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near Lebanon or the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza if sophisticated Iranian-made Zelzal missiles were crashing into the sides of Tel Aviv apartment towers and skyscrapers” – p. 141.)

The subject of Qana is especially instructive as it’s here that Totten’s investigative scruples hit their absolute nadir. Courageously tackling the most controversial Israeli attack of the entire conflict, he unsmilingly quotes the official IDF explanation as though there were no reason not to take them at their word:

IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz apologized for the deaths of civilians and blamed Hezbollah for using them as human shields. (p. 124) 

Never mind what we already know about Mr Halutz: anyone remotely familiar with the IDF’s record on the previous Qana ‘accident’ will know that a policy of such intractable credulity is ill-advised, and indeed the HRW report suggests a story quite different from the Brigadier General’s:

Human Rights Watch researchers visited Qana on July 31, the day after the attack, and did not find any destroyed military equipment in or near the home [in which the 27 civilians were killed]. None of the dozens of international journalists, rescue workers, and international observers who visited Qana on July 30 and 31 reported seeing any evidence of a Hezbollah military presence in or around the home around the time that it was hit. Rescue workers recovered no bodies of apparent Hezbollah fighters from in or near the building [...] The IDF has never released any evidence to support the Israeli air commander’s contention that Hezbollah had fired rockets from the area.

Indeed, to the contrary, the report quotes from an article in Israel’s best-known daily newspaper saying that “[i]t now appears that the military had no information on rockets launched from the site of the building, or the presence of Hezbollah men at the time. The Israel Defense Forces had said after the deadly air-strike that many rockets had been launched from Qana. However, it changed its version on Monday.”

Not for the first time, then, crucial information incriminating to Israel is absent in Totten’s narrative. That article was published on August 1st, 2006 - five years before Totten’s book went into print. Once again, the reader is given reason to doubt whether such a lapse on his part is unintentional. In any event, he manages – as American writers so often do – to cast Israel in far more positive a light than any ordinary reader of Israeli newspapers would know to be accurate.

This fundamental misapprehension about the nature of Israel has the further lamentable consequence of getting Totten into entirely avoidable difficulties with some of his biggest Lebanese interview subjects. He meets Fouad Siniora, the then-Prime Minister, and is utterly unwilling to see his anti-Israel stance as anything but the cheapest demagogy and crowd-pleasing:

He had little choice but to say about Israel what his Sunni constituents wanted to hear [...] Siniora may as well car bomb himself before saying anything nice about Israel, but I doubted he’d have much nice to say anyway. (p. 274)

That belated half-acknowledgment of his missing the point doesn’t acquit Totten of his failure to ask himself why Siniora should have anything nice to say about Israel, or why a constituent of any Lebanese sect should (indeed, with that “Sunni” qualifier, we see him again trying to pass off legitimate anti-Israel grievances as barbarous Islamic chauvinism). If only the Arab masses weren’t so brainwashed, Totten constantly seems to be saying, if only they would take the trouble to think for themselves, they would see at last what a friendly and generous neighbour they really have in Israel.

And if this is embarrassing, then it’s simply mortifying to read of the conversation in which Totten piously tells Walid Jumblatt that Israel would never have been in Lebanon in 2006 if it weren’t for Hizbullah – at which point Jumblatt very patiently and politely points out that the Israelis would never have left Lebanon if it weren’t for Hizbullah; that, indeed, their occupation of the country would be in its 33rd consecutive year today; their ‘South Lebanon Army’ proxy militia still making hostages of the UNIFIL ‘peacekeeping’ forces; their torture chamber at Khiam still amputating the limbs and electrocuting the genitals of its luckless captives. But again, as with Siniora, Totten prefers to listen without hearing, and will not even briefly consider that there might be a real point being made at Israel’s expense: instead, “[Jumblatt’s] family’s long-standing dedication to the Palestinian cause all but precluded him from saying anything nice or even neutral about Israel” (p. 292).

All of this is a real pity, since it jeopardises not just Totten’s individual credibility but the credibility of the wider case against Hizbullah and the March 8 bloc as a whole. As I stated earlier, Fatima has its strengths, and Totten’s stories of being, say, threatened over the phone by the Hizbullah ‘Media Relations Department’, or hassled and intimidated by officials at a Hizbullah iftar dinner, are both useful to know and entertaining to read. But criticism of Lebanese thugs and theocrats that comes at the price of ignoring or exonerating Israeli thuggery and theocracy is neither intellectual nor moral value for money. In his own review of another book in the New York Times, Totten wrote that Beirut was “a doorway to understanding, because to know Lebanon is to know the Arabs”. One might just as easily say that to know Israel is to know the Arabs, but by either measure, the question is left wide open as to Totten’s knowledge of any one of them.