Friday, November 15, 2013

Speaking on Monocle 24 about Hizbullah, Syria and Lebanon

I spoke to Monocle 24 radio last night about Hizbullah, Syria and Lebanon, following Nasrallah's Ashura speech. Episode available here (I come on at 20:25). 

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Ashura on campus stirs student complaints

[Originally posted at NOW]

While some Lebanese University students defend the campus makeover in the run-up to Ashura, others say university is not the place for political and religious activity.

Amal Movement flags flank a banner saying "O' Hussein" greeting entrants inside the foyer (Source: "Hope [amal] of the media, hope of Lebanon" Facebook group)
A visitor to the Lebanese University’s UNESCO Street campus this week might be forgiven for believing they had walked into a political party’s office, or, as the running joke among some students goes, a “Husseiniya” (Shiite religious center), rather than a public higher education institution.

Hanging squarely above the main entrance is the flag of the Amal Movement, Lebanon’s oldest predominantly-Shiite political party and a leading member of the pro-Damascus March 8 bloc. Only once inside, however, does the extent of the decoration become apparent: countless Amal flags, along with posters bearing messages of religious devotion to Imam Hussein ibn Ali as well as Amal founder Imam Musa al-Sadr, are all set against a backdrop of ubiquitous black cloth. The theme continues in the campus courtyard, where speakers have been playing a steady stream of religious anthems for the past few days. And on all floors throughout the building, there is scarcely one noticeboard or hallway without either a Shiite banner or an Amal logo.

The campus isn’t always like this, but this week is a special one for Shiites across the world, who are preparing to commemorate Ashura, the tenth day of the month of Muharram in the Islamic calendar, marking the anniversary of the death of Imam Hussein in the Battle of Karbala in 61 AH (680 AD). Although Lebanese University bylaws prohibit the display of explicitly political and religious materials on campus, students say the practice has been going on for years with little opposition from the administration.

And several students NOW spoke to on campus Wednesday afternoon defended it.

“It’s not only for Shiites that we do this. At Christmas time we also put up Christmas trees,” said one who would only give her name as Samar. “I don’t think it should be a problem, people should learn to accept and live with one another.”

“They’re just flags,” said another student, who gave her name as Zahra. “It’s not like we’re converting people to Shiism or forcing anyone to join a political party. This is Lebanon, all sects celebrate their festivals in public, it’s not something new.”

Other students, however, argued campus was not the proper place for such celebrations.

“If someone wants to commemorate Ashura, there are more mosques and Husseiniyas than universities in this country,” said Eva Choufi. “We came here to learn. When they play the speakers, we can’t even hear the professor’s words in our classroom. That’s not logical. I’m not saying don’t commemorate Ashura. I’m saying the commemoration of Ashura has a specific place. Even Sheikh Jaafar Fadlullah, the son of [Grand Ayatollah] Muhammad Fadlallah, wrote yesterday on Facebook that Ashura should not be commemorated in universities.”

“There are things happening that should not be in a university campus,” agreed another student, who gave her name as Yasmin. “The black flags, the pictures, this is not supposed to be a political office. And this is not about sectarianism – it’s not only Christians or Sunnis or Druze who oppose it, it’s many Shiites as well.”

According to Yasmin, the university’s administration has made attempts to rein in the students responsible, but to no avail.

“Once there was a message for the students – a paper was put on the door of the elevator – saying all political signs should be removed. After two days, instead of removing the signs, they removed the paper,” she told NOW.

It’s unclear why staff have not done more to prevent the practice when the university’s president himself, Adnan al-Sayyid Hussein, has publicly condemned it. “I don’t agree with what’s happening, especially since no one requested official approval before proceeding,” Hussein told the Annahar daily. “The university has already warned students against these activities, but God help us.” Yasmin and other students alleged to NOW that the administration was being intimidated by Amal Movement members, though Amal itself also rejected the activities to Annahar and called on students to abide by university bylaws.

Maya Gebeily contributed reporting.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

As Iran talks falter, is Saudi relieved?

[Originally posted at NOW]

Experts suggest Saudi may still seek partial break with US, particularly on Syria.

When Saudi Arabia declared last month that it would implement a “major shift” in its relations with the United States, in protest at what it perceived as the latter’s unsatisfactory policies in the region, one of the key reasons cited was Washington’s diplomatic overtures to Riyadh’s greatest rival, Iran. Now that a prospective American-Iranian agreement to ease sanctions in exchange for a freeze of uranium enrichment has faltered, with US Secretary of State John Kerry saying it could take “weeks” to materialize, it is unclear whether Saudi Arabia’s displeasure will abate somewhat.

Some experts familiar with Riyadh’s thinking told NOW that it likely would not, because enrichment per se was never the monarchy’s chief concern.

“Saudi knows the enrichment issue is being handled adequately by the US and Israel,” said Jamal Khashoggi, a veteran Saudi journalist and former advisor to then-ambassador Prince Turki al-Faisal. “What worries Saudi is that the issues it really cares about, like Iranian intervention in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, will be left hanging. America is interested in the nuclear issue, but is dragging its feet on Syria.”

Similar concerns were voiced by Riyadh’s allies in Lebanon. “For the Saudis, the big issue is Syria. The reluctance of American policymakers to support the Syrian revolution left the Saudis completely disappointed,” said Mustafa Alloush, a former MP with the Saudi-supported Future Movement.

Should a US-Iran deal emerge, however, some believe Saudi may be able to negotiate some compensation. A leading French diplomat at the Quai d’Orsay [foreign ministry] has suggested the Saudis would be offered a “consolation gift” in Lebanon in the event of an agreement, according to Karim Emile Bitar, senior research fellow at the Paris-based Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques (IRIS). This, in practice, would likely entail concessions in March 14’s favor on the cabinet, and perhaps the coming presidential nomination, Bitar told NOW.

Certainly, during his trip to Riyadh last week, Secretary Kerry said the US sought a cabinet in Lebanon free from “Hezbollah intimidation,” and upon returning from his own trip to the Saudi capital Monday, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman took an implicit jab at Hezbollah by stressing the importance of the “Baabda Declaration,” which calls for Lebanon to stay out of the Syrian conflict.

However, Khashoggi dismissed the notion of such a “gift.” “Syria and Lebanon cannot be separated. I don’t see how the Iranians can ‘win’ Syria and the Saudis can ‘win’ Lebanon. It doesn’t work that way,” he told NOW.

Alloush also said the Saudis see gains in Syria as the only meaningful route to gains in Lebanon. “The Saudis know that cutting the rope to Hezbollah through Syria would mean a Hezbollah that is willing to make concessions in Lebanon. Now, Hezbollah is acting like a tyrant in Lebanon, because it feels it got a boost after they realized an attack by the US on the Syrian regime isn’t happening. So the Saudis feel that only more use of force against Syria can weaken Hezbollah.”

To that end, Khashoggi told NOW the most tangible consequences of Saudi’s so-called “major shift” will be felt on the ground in Syria, where Riyadh may team up with European allies to provide more support for rebel forces than Washington has hitherto accepted.

“The biggest shift is to bypass the Americans in Syria, by sending certain weapons to [rebels in] Syria. We’re beginning to get the French more onto our side. The French are helping out, they are becoming friendlier, if that’s the right word, with Saudi Arabia.”

Ultimately, however, some analysts believe the extent of any potential US-Saudi rift is being greatly exaggerated.

“I don’t see this as as major as it’s been made out to be,” said Andrew Hammond, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and author of The Islamic Utopia: The Illusion of Reform in Saudi Arabia. “Remember during the Intifada, [King] Abdullah was allegedly very angry, and went to America and showed them these pictures of Palestinians suffering. It’s kind of a familiar thing in this relationship that is essentially on pretty good terms. These disputes between them are always in the context of two very close allies.”

“The investment that the Americans have put in, on so many levels, which has even got to the extent of them sharing military technology […] it’s a lot. The idea that that kind of relationship could be overturned in a short space of time is basically ridiculous.”

All the same, others suggest a genuine, fundamental realignment of relationships is conceivable.

“It could be – and here I’m speculating – a calculation of US foreign policy that the Saudis are too weak to make really significant changes in Syria, or Iraq, or Lebanon; that Iran is the dominant and effective player; and that US interests are better served by seeking conciliation and collaboration with the Iranians to maintain influence in the region,” said Dr. Imad Salamey, professor of Political Science at the Lebanese American University.

“Things may be changing, and they may be changing rapidly.”

At Beirut's war cemetery, remember the "gifts"

[Originally posted at NOW]

“Gathered like pearls in their alien graves
Silent they sleep by the Persian waves,
Scattered like shells on Egyptian sands,
They lie with pale brows and brave, broken hands
”
- Sarojini Naidu, ‘The Gift of India’

Beirut's war cemetery (NOW/Alex Rowell)
It would be idle to pretend the history of the two World Wars was not contentious in Lebanon, as indeed it is everywhere. On the one hand, the wars marked the defeats of the Ottoman and then Vichy French occupiers, and thus led more or less directly to the creation and independence of the Republic as we know it. On the other, this partition (as many saw it) of Syria was one of several enacted by the British and French victors, who themselves took up occupation of the region, and whose bright new ideas also included the creation of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine, later known as Israel. The arguments and conflicting allegiances sparked by these events contributed in no small part to Lebanon’s subsequent wars, and are by no means reconciled today.

Wherever one stands on the question, what is not disputed is that many people died in the “Great War” and its sequel, including thousands here on Lebanese soil. Few public spaces in Beirut are as striking as the British war cemetery, where a ceremony was held today by the British embassy in remembrance of these victims. Nestled between the Shatila refugee camp to the south, the pro-Future/Islamist Tariq Jadideh neighborhood to the north, and the pro-Hezbollah Shiyah to the east, it’s perhaps not the first place one would expect to find vast, immaculately-groomed gardens, hemmed in by rows of tall, verdant trees. Yet, while Allied war cemeteries have elsewhere been vandalized by both Palestinians and Israelis in recent years, Beirut’s bears no more at present than a spot of Islamist graffiti on the outer wall.

Islamist graffiti on the outer wall of Beirut's war cemetery (NOW/Alex Rowell)
More arresting than the scenery, however, are the engravings on the headstones themselves. For while it’s called the “British” cemetery, this conceals the immensely diverse nationalities of its inhabitants. Pace up and down the rows of the 1,000+ graves and you’ll find hundreds of Christians, Muslims and Jews of Arab, Indian, African, Australasian and east European origins, all of them induced and perhaps coerced (though not actually conscripted) to fight under the British command.

(NOW/Alex Rowell)

(NOW/Alex Rowell)

(NOW/Alex Rowell)
On Remembrance Day, therefore, by all means remember the Brits who died, if you’re so inclined. But do not forget the numberless others for whom the outcome, whether ultimately worthwhile or wasteful, was paid for in quantities of blood of which there can be no debate at all.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

At AUB, a big win for Lebanese secularists

[Originally posted at NOW]

Amid the din of familiar political chants in the two segregated crowds outside AUB’s West Hall Tuesday night (“Bashir [Gemayel] lives within us!” on the de facto ‘March 14’ side; “God, Syria, Bashar [al-Assad] and nothing more!” on the ‘March 8’ one), there was occasionally a more unconventional slogan emanating from a small but lively corner: “Secularism! Secularism!”

The Secular Club, whose president Jean Kassir I interviewed on Saturday, had reason to be in high spirits. As Kassir had predicted, Tuesday’s elections were by far the most successful ones for the independent club in its history. Having won their first and only University Student Faculty Committee (USFC) seat last year, this year they took 13 of the 109 Student Representative Committee seats and 3 out of 18 in the more important USFC.

While this hardly spells the imminent demise of sectarianism in Lebanon (the March 8-PSP alliance won the most seats overall), it’s difficult not to take some encouragement from this slight flaring of the candle. It’s already been a historic year for those Lebanese who aspire to a day when clergymen can no longer tell them who to marry or what doctrine to impose on their children, and it’s gratifying to see these achievements, and the spirit undergirding them, making gains on the parties of God in all their guises.

Monday, November 4, 2013

Secular students hope to shake up AUB polls

[Originally posted at NOW]

Though support for independents may be growing, they are unlikely to threaten the major established parties on Tuesday.

The American University of Beirut (AUB) is set to hold its annual student elections Tuesday, during which undergraduates and graduates will elect representatives from all faculties to a pair of committees intended – at least in theory – to advance the interests of students within the broader university administration.

While overt affiliation with real Lebanese political parties is forbidden, it’s an open secret that most of the various “clubs” running candidates are de facto proxy parties, with the Youth Club representing the Future Movement, the Cultural Club of the South standing in for Hezbollah, and so on. As a result, student elections are often regarded as indicators of the prevailing political dynamics nationwide.

However, not all students see it that way, and indeed a minority of independents is seeking this year to convince their peers that there is something more at stake.

“We have taken for granted that student elections are a kind of survey of the political distribution in the country, and the class consciousness of students as an interest group is not really present,” says Jean Kassir, a final-year political studies student and president of the Secular Club, an independent, non-sectarian club that won a seat in the business faculty last year, and aims to win more on Tuesday. “So when you talk about a platform, or a vision for AUB, many students don’t care.”

Kassir, by contrast, clearly does care. A nephew of the late writer Samir Kassir, assassinated in the aftermath of Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005, Jean opposes March 8 but is evidently also unimpressed by March 14, and anyway insists that policies are what count when he meets NOW at the largely deserted AUB campus on Saturday afternoon.

“Our platform specifically targets tuition fees” – a controversial 6% hike was introduced this year – “as well as the issues of transparency in financial aid, transparency in AUB expenditures, and the idea of improving overall academic standards.” He speaks at length about questionable allocations of funds by the administration (“there is no culture of accountability at AUB”) and what he believes is the failure of the mainstream clubs to address any of the above.

“What are their priorities? These guys are really obsessed by the score they get in the elections and they don’t care about the essentials. The 6% increase in tuition fees is maybe nothing for them but I know people who really cannot afford it.”

And he believes the club’s message will resonate with voters – particularly graduates – on Tuesday. They have indeed already won a graduate seat in the Faculty of Arts and Sciences (FAS) unopposed (“It’s known that political parties have no chance there”). Also working in their favor is a boycott of this year’s elections by their strongest independent rivals, No Frontiers. Even Bilal Derian, spokesperson for the Future-affiliated Youth Club, conceded to NOW that independents stood to gain this year: “People now are against all that’s going on in the country, and so are becoming more and more independent from political parties.” All in all, Kassir believes they can take all the FAS and Faculty of Health Sciences (FHS) graduate seats, along with a few undergraduate seats across various faculties.

Nevertheless, the Secular Club is unlikely to significantly upset the March 14-8 duopoly, according to Makram Rabah, former vice-president of AUB’s University Student Faculty Committee, author of A Campus at War: Student Politics at the American University of Beirut 1967-1975, and an active alumnus of the Progressive Youth Organization (PYO), the unofficial affiliate of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP).

“They’re not strong at all,” said Rabah of the Secular Club. “They might win a couple of seats, but since they’re not competing in the big ones – the vice-president, the treasurer, and so on – they’re not a challenge. They don’t have the manpower, the political leverage, or the funding.”

Indeed, Rabah believes the election is already effectively a foregone conclusion, given that the PYO – which, much like the PSP itself, enjoys a ‘kingmaker’ role, determining which of the two camps wins the day – has chosen once again to ally with March 8.

“Ever since the PYO decided a few years ago not to run on the March 14 ticket, March 14 has never won an AUB election. And there’s no reason for something unexpected from them this year.”

Derian, however, told NOW that the PYO’s alliance with March 8 actually gave Youth Club activists encouragement. “It made us work harder and boosted our people’s morales. We are working like bees this year.” Accordingly, Derian believes March 14 still has a “high chance” of winning the overall election. “Since last year, we decided to work for the students rather than for the political party we represent, and this allowed us to be powerful this year.”

Rabah, by contrast, says Tuesday will if anything see slight gains for March 8, given that they “are entering with a winning record,” and due to poor campaigning from March 14. “March 14 are too used to the pre-2007 victories, when they were so popular that everyone voted for them. Now, you have to actually go out and get the votes, which they’re not doing.” The PYO was in fact negotiating an alliance with March 14 earlier in the year, said both Rabah and Derian, but they fell out over seat allocations.

The Secular Club, then, may be destined to remain in the political wilderness for now. Yet it didn’t take long to find supporters on campus Saturday. The very first person to walk out of Main Gate following NOW’s interview with Kassir was Qasim, an undergraduate in the business school.

“I’m voting for them,” said Qasim. “Because they’re not affiliated with any political party.”

Before the floods

[Originally posted at NOW]

The UN estimates at least 10,000 Syrian refugees living in tents in Lebanon will soon face flooding.

The center of the unofficial Nahiriyeh camp, near the Beqaa town of Bar Elias (NOW/Alex Rowell)
BAR ELIAS, Lebanon – Arriving at what locals call the “Nahiriyeh camp,” erected on a rectangular patch of gravelly sand hidden among the agrarian fields of the central Beqaa Valley, NOW briefly received a hero’s welcome on Thursday morning. The residents – Syrian refugees from Qusayr and elsewhere in Homs Province – crowded around the car, eagerly asking if we had come to hand out aid. The hope in their eyes quickly drained when we said we were only journalists, and most walked away, heads bowed, muttering under their breath. Those who stayed wasted no time in reeling off a long list of grievances: serious healthcare needs they couldn’t pay for; children denied places at schools; dangerously unclean drinking water; lack of diapers for newborns.

And yet, unenviable as living conditions for Nahiriyeh’s several hundred residents already are, they are soon to get much worse. It has begun to rain in Lebanon in the past fortnight, and though predictions of the harshest winter in a hundred years may be unreliable, snow will nevertheless cover much of the Beqaa in the coming winter months, which is grim news for the more than 270,000 Syrian refugees that the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has accounted for in the agricultural plain. Especially vulnerable are the more than 80,000 refugees UNHCR estimates are living in what it calls informal tented settlements (ITS), which are makeshift camps in all but name (unlike Jordan and Turkey, Lebanon does not officially have Syrian refugee camps). Of these settlements, UNHCR says 12% are located in flood-prone areas, which means at least 9,600 refugees will be living in flooded tents once the rain season gets fully underway.

Nahiriyeh’s residents will be among them. Invited inside the home of Umm Ahmad, a warm-spirited grandmother from Qusayr, NOW saw few means by which the family of eight would be able to escape the rain and snow. The roof comprised cardboard box panels supported by wooden beams. The walls were carpets held in place with nails. The floor was a mat thrown over an uneven, cracked layer of concrete; unprofessionally put in place by the refugees themselves. The only furniture, such as it was, consisted of a ring of uncomfortably thin mattresses, functioning as seats, children’s play areas, and beds. Asked how she planned to cope with the coming winter, Umm Ahmad could only laugh: “What you see is what we have.”

Nor were things better in Umm Muhammad’s slightly larger dwelling around the corner. Here, the roof had been fashioned out of woven rice sack material, some of which had begun to fray already. “Look at this,” she told NOW as her children looked on silently. “When it rains, this place is going to fill up.”

In anticipation of these humanitarian disasters-in-waiting, UNHCR and its NGO partners are building on the experiences of the past two winters since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis, and have been working on a so-called ‘winterization’ plan since the summer, according to UNHCR spokesperson Joelle Eid.

“In the Beqaa, we have around 280 informal settlements at risk of flooding,” Eid told NOW. “As soon as you have a lot of rain, the floor turns into mud, and those tents are at risk of flooding.” One planned response involves identifying all flood-prone locations, and then re-locating the refugees within them either to shelters or to Lebanese host families (who would then receive compensation from UNHCR), wherever possible.

A parallel initiative, which Eid told NOW has already started, is the distribution of “sealing kits” to refugees – that is, materials with which flood-prone homes could be sufficiently fortified to keep out the wet. Moreover, Eid added that distribution of winter-specific aid, such as warm clothing, blankets, mattresses, and heating fuel “will start in the coming weeks.”

However, Nahiriyeh’s residents – who say they are burning cardboard indoors to stay warm at night – are unconvinced they will see much aid come their way.

“We’ve been promised many things for the winter, but so far there has been nothing.”

Luna Safwan contributed reporting.